TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120756
Played Sep 13Finished
Piotr Maruszak
Home
2.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118911511119118
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.34
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:13 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
118911511119118
H2H Piotr Maruszak 4–3 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:13What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maruszak 1392 vs Kolek 1671
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 279 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maruszak 40% vs Kolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maruszak 60% vs Kolek 40%
Maruszak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maruszak -2 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaruszak 2.80 / Kolek 1.34
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kolek)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120756
Maruszak2.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 19 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Kolek1.34
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 255 of 424
Up 2–0, closes it94% 92 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it81% 192 of 238
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMaruszak4wins
AwayKolek3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMaruszak leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaruszakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maruszak2Kolek5n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S2Maruszak6Kolek1n = 7Maruszak took 6 of 7
S3Maruszak4Kolek3n = 7Maruszak took 4 of 7
S4Maruszak2Kolek4n = 6Kolek took 4 of 6
S5Maruszak2Kolek1n = 3Maruszak took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMaruszakKolekM − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match40.039.9+0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaruszakKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 501 vs 690 / 139047.5%49.6%238 / 501 vs 690 / 1390Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekMaruszak 2.80/Kolek 1.34
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maruszak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WMay 2 · 05:50P. Maruszak47681111113M. Kolek4311117862
LMay 2 · 03:20P. Maruszak3961111562M. Kolek46117611113
WMay 1 · 09:50P. Maruszak501111116113M. Kolek4213381172
WApr 10 · 11:05P. Maruszak3813113113M. Kolek361171171
LApr 9 · 15:00P. Maruszak4181110121M. Kolek4511812143
LJan 9 · 18:20P. Maruszak32711591M. Kolek4211911113
WJan 1 · 20:40P. Maruszak331111113M. Kolek258890
P. Maruszak10
LSep 13 · 08:30P. Maruszak2.401840D. Solilo1.461111113LSep 13 · 06:50P. Maruszak1.8371111672I. Dabrowski1.81118311113WSep 13 · 05:35P. Maruszak1.7311811113T. Piotrowski1.92311891LSep 13 · 04:00P. Maruszak2.02811116112J. Glanowski1.65117511133WSep 13 · 03:00P. Maruszak1.571111123M. Piecowski2.1785100WSep 12 · 14:20J. Przewlocki2.461115861P. Maruszak1.4451711113WSep 12 · 13:30J. Glanowski1.7711511992P. Maruszak1.93511411113LSep 12 · 11:25J. Rolak2.7511811163P. Maruszak1.404117141WSep 12 · 10:35K. Marchlewski3.257712101P. Maruszak1.26111110123WSep 12 · 09:00I. Dabrowski1.861161271P. Maruszak1.8071114113
M. Kolek10
WSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143WSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz1.36111188113M. Kolek3.0068111192LSep 12 · 16:30P. Jendrzejewski1.61111282113M. Kolek2.20610111152LSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162WSep 12 · 14:15G. Kesik2.5513580M. Kolek1.451511113LSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882LSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:30R. Malinowski2.60117791M. Kolek1.4261111113LSep 12 · 09:00D. Solilo2.001111113M. Kolek1.717860
Upcoming Matches
P. Maruszak
M. Kolek
Sep 13 · 10:55M. Kolek1.38G. Kesik2.65—Sep 13 · 12:10M. Kolek1.60D. Solilo2.10—Sep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.24M. Piecowski3.40—Sep 13 · 14:35M. Kolek1.29T. Piotrowski3.05—Sep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.23D. Jadam1.53—Sep 13 · 16:05M. Kolek2.60F. Mlynarski1.40—Sep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.40G. Kesik2.60—Sep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.98L. Pietraszko1.68—Sep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.12K. Staszczyk1.59—
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