TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125422
Played Sep 14Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117116811116
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 71.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 4–1 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kolek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1680 vs Kostyk 1392
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Kostyk 0%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Kostyk 10%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Kostyk -5
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.57 / Kostyk 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125422
Kolek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 259 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it94% 94 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it81% 195 of 241
Kostyk2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayKostyk1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKolek leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKostyk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek1Kostyk4n = 5Kostyk took 4 of 5
S2Kolek3Kostyk2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
S3Kolek5Kostyk0n = 5Kolek took 5 of 5
S4Kolek1Kostyk4n = 5Kostyk took 4 of 5
S5Kolek3Kostyk0n = 3Kolek took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolekKostykKolek − KostykBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match46.840.6+6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime697 / 1401 vs 219 / 43949.8%49.9%697 / 1401 vs 219 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.57/Kostyk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJul 25 · 12:10M. Kolek50119118113K. Kostyk3541141152
WJul 24 · 21:45M. Kolek4181111113K. Kostyk31117851
LMay 10 · 10:30M. Kolek377911101K. Kostyk4111117123
WMay 10 · 06:40M. Kolek5713111210113K. Kostyk53158101282
WMay 10 · 04:10M. Kolek49911117113K. Kostyk4311691162
M. Kolek10
WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153WSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112LSep 13 · 12:10D. Solilo1.8511118113M. Kolek1.85371181
K. Kostyk10
LSep 14 · 16:30K. Rudomina1.91111111113K. Kostyk1.80136951LSep 14 · 15:00J. Witkowski1.61511913113K. Kostyk2.20118111172LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
K. Kostyk
Sep 14 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 14 · 20:05K. Kostyk1.83A. Linek1.83—Sep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk1.44A. Linek2.45—Sep 14 · 22:55K. Kostyk1.44J. Lamperski2.63—Sep 14 · 23:45K. Kostyk2.25D. Solilo1.57—Sep 15 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk—A. Linek——Sep 15 · 16:05K. Kostyk—J. Lamperski——Sep 15 · 17:40K. Kostyk—B. Kwodawski——Sep 15 · 18:50K. Kostyk—J. Witkowski——
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