TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13127714
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Witkowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111189111311117
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:51 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Witkowski to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Witkowski above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Witkowski at 60.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Witkowski 2–1 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1511 vs Kostyk 1412
Witkowski
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 60% vs Kostyk 20%
Witkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 50% vs Kostyk 10%
Witkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski +1 · Kostyk -4
Kostyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.61 / Kostyk 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Witkowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13127714
Witkowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 68 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Kostyk2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWitkowski2wins
AwayKostyk1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderWitkowski leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKostyk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski0Kostyk3n = 3Kostyk took 3 of 3
S2Witkowski3Kostyk0n = 3Witkowski took 3 of 3
S3Witkowski3Kostyk0n = 3Witkowski took 3 of 3
S4Witkowski1Kostyk2n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricWitkowskiKostykW − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match47.344.3+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 853 vs 219 / 43746.7%50.1%398 / 853 vs 219 / 437Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.61/Kostyk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WDec 21 · 17:25J. Witkowski48121411113K. Kostyk401412951
LNov 10 · 02:10J. Witkowski47711136102K. Kostyk541191111123
WNov 9 · 23:45J. Witkowski47411118133K. Kostyk39114211112
J. Witkowski10
WSep 14 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn3.851251161J. Witkowski1.20101113113LSep 14 · 13:05A. Sobel2.108111111113J. Witkowski1.6611881342LSep 14 · 12:15J. Witkowski1.6111571182J. Glanowski2.15911115113WSep 14 · 10:35J. Witkowski1.1711611113F. Krcil4.10811891WSep 14 · 09:50J. Przewlocki4.10861191J. Witkowski1.1811114113LSep 3 · 20:05J. Witkowski5.00411581M. Benes1.1411911113WSep 3 · 18:30J. Braun1.2011814111J. Witkowski4.33131112133LSep 3 · 17:40P. Klos1.131111113J. Witkowski5.504670WSep 3 · 16:55J. Witkowski1.80911611113J. Chmielowski1.9111811472LSep 3 · 15:45J. Witkowski2.639813121A. Daniel1.44111111143
K. Kostyk10
LSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370LSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk2.631111113K. Kapik1.448870LSep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk3.751111361K. Glazowski1.2513611113LSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113LSep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk2.75881161A. Daniel1.4011117113LSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123LSep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.501111143K. Kostyk2.5097120
Upcoming Matches
J. Witkowski
Sep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.53A. Linek2.38—Sep 14 · 18:50J. Witkowski1.44K. Rudomina2.63—Sep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.91K. Staszczyk1.80—Sep 15 · 09:25J. Witkowski—W. Iwasyszyn——Sep 15 · 11:00J. Witkowski—B. Czerwinski——Sep 15 · 12:15J. Witkowski—J. Zochniak——Sep 15 · 13:30J. Witkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 15 · 14:40J. Witkowski—A. Sobel——Sep 15 · 15:45J. Witkowski—B. Kwodawski——Sep 15 · 16:30J. Witkowski—A. Linek——
K. Kostyk
Sep 14 · 16:30K. Kostyk1.80K. Rudomina1.91—Sep 14 · 17:20K. Kostyk2.25M. Kolek1.57—Sep 14 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 14 · 20:05K. Kostyk1.83A. Linek1.83—Sep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk1.44A. Linek2.45—Sep 14 · 22:55K. Kostyk1.44J. Lamperski2.63—Sep 14 · 23:45K. Kostyk2.25D. Solilo1.57—Sep 15 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 15 · 15:00K. Kostyk—A. Linek——Sep 15 · 16:05K. Kostyk—J. Lamperski——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.