TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125280
Played Sep 13Finished
Adam Linek
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181198111210––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
3.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched — 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Linek to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1181198111210––
H2H Adam Linek 7–2 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (70%)
Linek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Linek
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Linek 1464 vs Marchlewski 1222
Linek
Correct
both rated, 242 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Linek 60% vs Marchlewski 20%
Linek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Linek 40% vs Marchlewski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Linek +2 · Marchlewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Linek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLinek 1.30 / Marchlewski 3.10
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Linek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125280
Linek1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 101 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it71% 72 of 101
Marchlewski3.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 42 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLinek7wins
AwayMarchlewski2wins
Linek leads 7–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLinek100%6 of 6
AwayMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Linek6Marchlewski3n = 9Linek took 6 of 9
S2Linek7Marchlewski2n = 9Linek took 7 of 9
S3Linek6Marchlewski3n = 9Linek took 6 of 9
S4Linek3Marchlewski1n = 4Linek took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricLinekMarchlewskiL − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match33.229.8+3.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLinekMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1680 vs 149 / 34146.5%43.7%781 / 1680 vs 149 / 341Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LinekLinek 1.30/Marchlewski 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Linek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LDec 21 · 24:50A. Linek194960K. Marchlewski331111113
WDec 20 · 22:30A. Linek3911611113K. Marchlewski29811461
WJun 29 · 24:40A. Linek361111143K. Marchlewski2879120
LJun 28 · 22:15A. Linek28511931K. Marchlewski4111811113
WMar 10 · 02:30A. Linek331111113K. Marchlewski229670
WMar 10 · 24:00A. Linek4111118113K. Marchlewski34991151
WMar 9 · 18:00A. Linek331111113K. Marchlewski225980
WJan 20 · 02:30A. Linek331111113K. Marchlewski246990
WJan 20 · 24:00A. Linek3741111113K. Marchlewski35117891
A. Linek10
WSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 11 · 08:05D. Kosmal1.4013580A. Linek2.651511113LSep 11 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.8361111113A. Linek1.86118971LSep 11 · 05:15K. Wisniewski1.4211711113A. Linek2.60911891WSep 11 · 04:25B. Sulkowski1.91811712102A. Linek1.801161110123LSep 11 · 03:00D. Solilo1.6591111113A. Linek2.05119861LSep 10 · 13:55A. Linek2.07127861P. Blocho1.62101111113LSep 10 · 12:40A. Linek1.95711581B. Sulkowski1.7511411113LSep 10 · 11:25A. Linek2.331014113102D. Solilo1.491212511123WSep 10 · 10:10M. Misiak1.9011860A. Linek1.741311113
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 13 · 22:15K. Marchlewski3.3511781152K. Rudomina1.25811115113LSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121LSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113LSep 13 · 16:15K. Marchlewski3.5581181372J. Glanowski1.221131111113LSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 12 · 20:30K. Marchlewski3.55111188123A. Wos1.25651111102LSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113WSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132
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