TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125283
Played Sep 13Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
3.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711811115511
Kamil Rudomina
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Marchlewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
118711811115511
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 5–6 Kamil Rudomina Kacper Marchlewski has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Rudomina beat Marchlewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:55What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Rudomina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1227 vs Rudomina 1465
Rudomina
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 20% vs Rudomina 40%
Rudomina
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Rudomina 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Rudomina -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Rudomina) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rudomina form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 3.35 / Rudomina 1.25
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Rudomina)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125283
Marchlewski3.35
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 42 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Rudomina1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 205 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it96% 96 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it75% 146 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayRudomina5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%4 of 6
AwayRudomina75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski6Rudomina4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Rudomina5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski5Rudomina5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski3Rudomina3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiRudominaM − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.035.7−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiRudominaBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 340 vs 973 / 209643.8%46.4%149 / 340 vs 973 / 2096Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RudominaMarchlewski 3.35/Rudomina 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.6%
Rudomina · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rudomina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski359101151K. Rudomina4311129113
WAug 10 · 07:20K. Marchlewski331111113K. Rudomina208570
LApr 27 · 20:35K. Marchlewski248790K. Rudomina331111113
WApr 26 · 17:50K. Marchlewski331111113K. Rudomina219840
LApr 13 · 18:35K. Marchlewski2587100K. Rudomina341111123
WApr 13 · 24:40K. Marchlewski4111118113K. Rudomina35781191
LApr 12 · 22:15K. Marchlewski4614511792K. Rudomina531211811113
LApr 12 · 17:00K. Marchlewski26113841K. Rudomina4181111113
WJan 20 · 24:25K. Marchlewski44111111113K. Rudomina37781391
WJan 19 · 22:05K. Marchlewski4371211133K. Rudomina4011108111
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 13 · 22:35A. Linek1.3011118123K. Marchlewski3.108911101LSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880WSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121LSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113LSep 13 · 16:15K. Marchlewski3.5581181372J. Glanowski1.221131111113LSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 12 · 20:30K. Marchlewski3.55111188123A. Wos1.25651111102LSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113WSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132
K. Rudomina10
LSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 18:30J. Glanowski1.80941111113K. Rudomina1.9011116652WSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113WSep 13 · 16:55K. Rudomina1.42128711113D. Kotwica2.50101111692LSep 13 · 15:50K. Rudomina2.0512117842A. Wos1.681091111113LSep 12 · 13:50K. Rudomina1.80581141R. Malinowski1.8611119113LSep 12 · 12:35K. Rudomina1.851011961G. Kesik1.8512911113WSep 12 · 11:20K. Rudomina2.30411116113M. Kolek1.5211791182WSep 12 · 10:05D. Solilo1.5798111222K. Rudomina2.161111510113
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