TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125296
Played Sep 13Finished
Kacper Marchlewski
Home
2.29
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1178111161412––
Dawid Kotwica
Away
1.51
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1178111161412––
H2H Kacper Marchlewski 6–7 Dawid Kotwica Kacper Marchlewski has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (60%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1213 vs Kotwica 1256
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 20% vs Kotwica 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Kotwica 20%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -4 · Kotwica +1
Marchlewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kotwica) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (20%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.29 / Kotwica 1.51
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kotwica)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125296
Marchlewski2.29
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 42 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kotwica1.51
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite53% won 62 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 45 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski4wins
AwayKotwica6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKotwica71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski3Kotwica7n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S2Marchlewski3Kotwica7n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Marchlewski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski2Kotwica5n = 7Kotwica took 5 of 7
S5Marchlewski3Kotwica1n = 4Marchlewski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiKotwicaM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.1−3.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 339 vs 636 / 155043.7%41%148 / 339 vs 636 / 1550Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaMarchlewski 2.29/Kotwica 1.51
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.1%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski47681111113D. Kotwica4511119772
LMay 3 · 13:10K. Marchlewski246990D. Kotwica331111113
LDec 20 · 02:35K. Marchlewski32491181D. Kotwica4011117113
LDec 20 · 24:05K. Marchlewski207850D. Kotwica331111113
WAug 30 · 13:00K. Marchlewski45119122113D. Kotwica49911101182
WApr 21 · 24:15K. Marchlewski5811121311113D. Kotwica52610151382
LApr 20 · 21:50K. Marchlewski50131110972D. Kotwica491141211113
WApr 20 · 20:10K. Marchlewski4291111113D. Kotwica34117971
LApr 20 · 24:40K. Marchlewski32951171D. Kotwica4211119113
LApr 19 · 22:15K. Marchlewski2381050D. Kotwica341112113
K. Marchlewski10
LSep 13 · 21:05R. Stapor1.311111113K. Marchlewski2.954880LSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113LSep 13 · 16:15K. Marchlewski3.5581181372J. Glanowski1.221131111113LSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 12 · 20:30K. Marchlewski3.55111188123A. Wos1.25651111102LSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113WSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132WSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582
D. Kotwica10
LSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 18:10A. Wos1.231111113D. Kotwica3.502850LSep 13 · 16:55K. Rudomina1.42128711113D. Kotwica2.50101111692LSep 13 · 15:25J. Glanowski1.4191111113D. Kotwica2.55116581LSep 13 · 24:10A. Wos1.271111113D. Kotwica3.206580WSep 12 · 23:45D. Kotwica1.71391111113D. Poloszczanski2.0011119892LSep 12 · 22:55D. Kotwica2.359620R. Stapor1.481111113LSep 12 · 21:05D. Kotwica1.76771291W. Gluszek1.90111110113LSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772
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