TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125292
Played Sep 13Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.31
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118118––––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
2.95
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
114118118––––
H2H Rafal Stapor 3–1 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Stapor beat Marchlewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.31 (69%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stapor
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1427 vs Marchlewski 1220
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 40% vs Marchlewski 20%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Marchlewski 40%
Stapor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Marchlewski -4
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.31 / Marchlewski 2.95
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Stapor)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125292
Stapor1.31
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 391 of 620
Up 2–0, closes it96% 195 of 204
Up 1–0, closes it81% 298 of 367
Marchlewski2.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 42 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayMarchlewski1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderStapor leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor2Marchlewski2n = 4split evenly
S2Stapor2Marchlewski2n = 4split evenly
S3Stapor4Marchlewski0n = 4Stapor took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStaporMarchlewskiS − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.832.8+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1159 vs 148 / 33856.5%43.8%655 / 1159 vs 148 / 338Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.31/Marchlewski 2.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 13 · 15:00R. Stapor331111113K. Marchlewski207850
LSep 12 · 17:45R. Stapor3335111132K. Marchlewski39111124113
WMay 2 · 02:20R. Stapor331111113K. Marchlewski228680
WMay 1 · 23:55R. Stapor56981111173K. Marchlewski50111176152
R. Stapor10
WSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 19:20D. Kotwica2.4591111113R. Stapor1.47117481LSep 13 · 17:20J. Glanowski1.7511129113R. Stapor1.909101121LSep 13 · 16:35A. Wos1.45891111113R. Stapor2.5511119582WSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 13 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.8061116572R. Stapor1.341191411113WSep 12 · 22:55D. Kotwica2.359620R. Stapor1.481111113WSep 12 · 22:15W. Gluszek2.50411561R. Stapor1.4211911113LSep 12 · 21:30A. Wos1.501111106113R. Stapor2.5066121152WSep 12 · 20:05R. Stapor1.558111112113W. Gluszek2.2511971482
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 13 · 20:30K. Marchlewski2.2911811143D. Kotwica1.517116121LSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113LSep 13 · 17:45K. Marchlewski3.359101151K. Rudomina1.2511129113LSep 13 · 16:15K. Marchlewski3.5581181372J. Glanowski1.221131111113LSep 13 · 15:00K. Marchlewski3.107850R. Stapor1.291111113WSep 12 · 20:30K. Marchlewski3.55111188123A. Wos1.25651111102LSep 12 · 18:55K. Marchlewski2.70113661G. Kesik1.4091111113WSep 12 · 17:45K. Marchlewski2.85111124113R. Stapor1.3535111132WSep 12 · 16:15K. Marchlewski2.35681111113D. Kotwica1.4811119772WSep 12 · 15:00K. Marchlewski2.2511111013113W. Gluszek1.5775121582
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K. Marchlewski
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