TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125421
Played Sep 14Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811811115113911
Adam Linek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 61.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 21–9 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-9 in 30
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1697 vs Linek 1522
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Linek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 80% vs Linek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +3 · Linek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kolek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.61 / Linek 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kolek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125421
Kolek1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 259 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it94% 94 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it81% 195 of 241
Linek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 146 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 199
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek7wins
AwayLinek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%4 of 4
AwayLinek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek4Linek6n = 10Linek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek7Linek3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S3Kolek5Linek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolek6Linek3n = 9Kolek took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekLinekK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.538.6+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime698 / 1403 vs 786 / 168349.8%46.7%698 / 1403 vs 786 / 1683Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.61/Linek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 8 · 23:45M. Kolek47111114113A. Linek401371281
LJul 18 · 10:05M. Kolek341111751A. Linek3713211113
WJul 18 · 07:40M. Kolek4616118113A. Linek391491151
WJul 18 · 05:15M. Kolek52177611113A. Linek52151111962
LJun 28 · 20:05M. Kolek29611751A. Linek4111811113
WJun 18 · 14:20M. Kolek491012511113A. Linek45121011842
WJun 9 · 14:20M. Kolek4571111163A. Linek391159141
LJun 8 · 13:30M. Kolek399101191A. Linek4011126113
WJun 4 · 13:30M. Kolek331111113A. Linek204790
WMay 21 · 15:50M. Kolek4111711123A. Linek336116101
M. Kolek10
WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153WSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113WSep 13 · 13:25M. Kolek1.241191313133M. Piecowski3.404111115112
A. Linek10
WSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113WSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162WSep 14 · 15:45A. Linek1.731151110123K. Rudomina2.00911912102LSep 14 · 24:35A. Linek1.884990K. Rudomina1.821111113WSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113WSep 13 · 22:35A. Linek1.3011118123K. Marchlewski3.108911101WSep 13 · 21:55D. Kotwica2.5591111292A. Linek1.42118911113WSep 11 · 08:05D. Kosmal1.4013580A. Linek2.651511113LSep 11 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.8361111113A. Linek1.86118971LSep 11 · 05:15K. Wisniewski1.4211711113A. Linek2.60911891
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
A. Linek
Sep 14 · 20:05A. Linek1.83K. Kostyk1.83—Sep 14 · 21:00A. Linek2.45K. Kostyk1.44—Sep 14 · 22:10A. Linek1.30J. Lamperski3.40—Sep 14 · 22:35A. Linek2.25D. Solilo1.57—Sep 14 · 23:20A. Linek2.75K. Staszczyk1.40—Sep 15 · 15:00A. Linek—K. Kostyk——Sep 15 · 16:30A. Linek—J. Witkowski——Sep 15 · 17:20A. Linek—J. Lamperski——Sep 15 · 19:15A. Linek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 15 · 20:05A. Linek—B. Kwodawski——
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