TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128316
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118411117113––
Jakub Mejzlik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Jakub Mejzlik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 66 set 4, 11-3
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 3–4 Jakub Mejzlik Martin Vorel has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Mejzlik beat Vorel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mejzlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mejzlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.91 / Mejzlik 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mejzlik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13128316
Vorel1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 69 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Mejzlik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVorel3wins
AwayMejzlik4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMejzlik leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel60%3 of 5
AwayMejzlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel5Mejzlik2n = 7Vorel took 5 of 7
S2Vorel3Mejzlik4n = 7Mejzlik took 4 of 7
S3Vorel5Mejzlik2n = 7Vorel took 5 of 7
S4Vorel2Mejzlik5n = 7Mejzlik took 5 of 7
S5Vorel1Mejzlik3n = 4Mejzlik took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVorelMejzlikV − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match42.044.3−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelMejzlikBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 785 vs 146 / 29851.5%49%404 / 785 vs 146 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MejzlikVorel 1.91/Mejzlik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Mejzlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 14 · 06:30M. Vorel43111111462J. Mejzlik51813811113
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vorel4912119982J. Mejzlik521091111113
LAug 25 · 07:00M. Vorel28411761J. Mejzlik4211911113
WAug 19 · 07:00M. Vorel3711312113J. Mejzlik369111061
LAug 10 · 14:30M. Vorel45111111572J. Mejzlik49136811113
WMay 15 · 12:00M. Vorel4212711123J. Mejzlik3710116101
WJan 14 · 09:00M. Vorel50129117113J. Mejzlik43101141172
M. Vorel10
LSep 14 · 08:00M. Vorel1.9111101291A. Dvoracek1.8051214113LSep 14 · 06:30J. Mejzlik1.83813811113M. Vorel1.83111111462WSep 14 · 06:00O. Plyska2.10712761M. Vorel1.67111011113LSep 12 · 08:28M. Vorel2.50101111882K. Farsky1.50129711113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121LSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450LSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113
J. Mejzlik10
LSep 14 · 07:30J. Mejzlik1.734115111O. Plyska2.0011711133WSep 14 · 06:30J. Mejzlik1.83813811113M. Vorel1.83111111462LSep 14 · 05:30J. Mejzlik1.731714431A. Dvoracek2.00191211113LSep 13 · 21:03J. Hanacek2.251171110113J. Mejzlik1.5781181282WSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122WSep 13 · 18:30J. Mejzlik1.801112113J. Hanacek1.9171030WSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 9 · 21:08J. Mejzlik2.108680O. Karpisek1.671111113WSep 9 · 20:00J. Mejzlik3.004111311113M. Vana1.36119111382LSep 9 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.801111910113J. Mejzlik1.9194111272
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