TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116596
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Adam Dvoracek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Vorel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Adam Dvoracek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Martin Vorel at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 11–13 Adam Dvoracek Martin Vorel has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vorel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Dvoracek
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorel 1366 vs Dvoracek 1419
Dvoracek
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorel 40% vs Dvoracek 60%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorel 20% vs Dvoracek 40%
Dvoracek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorel -3 · Dvoracek -1
Vorel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 1.80 / Dvoracek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vorel)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116596
Vorel1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 104 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Dvoracek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel4wins
AwayDvoracek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDvoracek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel75%3 of 4
AwayDvoracek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S2Vorel4Dvoracek6n = 10Dvoracek took 6 of 10
S3Vorel7Dvoracek3n = 10Vorel took 7 of 10
S4Vorel4Dvoracek4n = 8split evenly
S5Vorel2Dvoracek4n = 6Dvoracek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelDvoracekV − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.442.0−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelDvoracekBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 784 vs 253 / 48451.5%52.3%404 / 784 vs 253 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorelVorel 1.80/Dvoracek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vorel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dvoracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel—711112143A. Dvoracek—113611122
LAug 16 · 16:14M. Vorel—119611102A. Dvoracek—911118123
LAug 16 · 13:45M. Vorel—811111152A. Dvoracek—119713113
WAug 15 · 12:00M. Vorel—2011113A. Dvoracek—18760
LAug 11 · 09:45M. Vorel—8950A. Dvoracek—1111113
LAug 6 · 12:34M. Vorel—611461A. Dvoracek—11611113
WAug 6 · 11:00M. Vorel—11711113A. Dvoracek—611971
LJul 31 · 12:00M. Vorel—991113112A. Dvoracek—1111511133
WJul 29 · 10:00M. Vorel—115119113A. Dvoracek—71171162
LJul 21 · 12:00M. Vorel—810111152A. Dvoracek—111239113
M. Vorel10
LSep 12 · 08:28M. Vorel2.50101111882K. Farsky1.50129711113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121LSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450LSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113LSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982
A. Dvoracek10
LSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky1.61119116113A. Dvoracek2.2091131172WSep 12 · 05:30K. Jirousek1.7311119662A. Dvoracek2.00841111113LSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113WSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 11:00F. Schmidtmayer2.0094110A. Dvoracek1.731111133LSep 11 · 09:30M. Melisek2.6351111113A. Dvoracek1.44117461WSep 9 · 08:18A. Dvoracek2.7511715113M. Hasman1.409111331LSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122LSep 9 · 06:45T. Bertho1.611112113A. Dvoracek2.2091020LSep 9 · 05:15M. Hasman1.501113113A. Dvoracek2.5061170
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