TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13119214
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Vorel
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119117811811
Karel Farsky
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Vorel above · Karel Farsky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 98 set 5, 8-11
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Vorel 7–15 Karel Farsky Martin Vorel has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Farsky beat Vorel 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Farsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorel 2.50 / Farsky 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Farsky)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13119214
Vorel2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 78 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back28% 25 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Farsky1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 50 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it64% 34 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorel4wins
AwayFarsky6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFarsky leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorel60%3 of 5
AwayFarsky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorel5Farsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Vorel2Farsky8n = 10Farsky took 8 of 10
S3Vorel5Farsky5n = 10split evenly
S4Vorel3Farsky5n = 8Farsky took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorelFarskyV − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.838.2−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorelFarskyBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 785 vs 170 / 35251.5%48.3%404 / 785 vs 170 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FarskyVorel 2.50/Farsky 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Farsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Farsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 06:00M. Vorel—101450K. Farsky—1216113
LAug 23 · 20:43M. Vorel—114961K. Farsky—81111113
WAug 23 · 19:45M. Vorel—11711113K. Farsky—711861
LJul 31 · 12:38M. Vorel—771161K. Farsky—11118113
LJun 28 · 18:45M. Vorel—168621K. Farsky—141111113
WJun 1 · 20:23M. Vorel—11115113K. Farsky—661181
LJun 1 · 18:15M. Vorel—791121K. Farsky—11119113
LMay 28 · 16:00M. Vorel—5880K. Farsky—1111113
WApr 21 · 13:30M. Vorel—11911113K. Farsky—711861
WApr 4 · 07:30M. Vorel—811115113K. Farsky—11681182
M. Vorel10
LSep 12 · 08:00M. Vorel1.809880A. Dvoracek1.911111113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Jirousek1.8371111143M. Vorel1.831168121LSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450LSep 9 · 08:49M. Vorel1.83781181T. Bertho1.8311114113WSep 9 · 07:45M. Vorel1.80711112143A. Dvoracek1.91113611122WSep 9 · 06:15M. Hasman1.73691171M. Vorel2.0011116113LSep 9 · 05:45T. Bertho1.8311116133M. Vorel1.837811111LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982
K. Farsky10
LSep 12 · 07:30K. Jirousek1.6711116133K. Farsky2.109511111WSep 12 · 07:00K. Farsky1.61119116113A. Dvoracek2.2091131172WSep 12 · 06:00K. Farsky1.611216113M. Vorel2.20101450WSep 6 · 20:33A. Dvoracek1.807860K. Farsky1.911111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Pina2.10711511143K. Farsky1.67116117122LSep 6 · 19:00K. Farsky1.831159111K. Jirousek1.8371111133LSep 6 · 18:00K. Farsky1.731472101A. Dvoracek2.00121111123LSep 1 · 17:08K. Farsky1.8081151352T. Bertho1.911131111113WSep 1 · 16:00P. Kotrbacek2.2531161132K. Farsky1.57117119113LSep 1 · 15:00T. Bertho2.001111113K. Farsky1.737450
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