TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122200
Played Sep 13Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11710121715113––
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Andrii Droshchynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 17-15
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 86 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 4–1 Andrii Droshchynskyi Andrii Droshchynskyi has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1628 vs Droshchynskyi 1730
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 60% vs Droshchynskyi 80%
Droshchynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 60% vs Droshchynskyi 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +2 · Droshchynskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Droshchynskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.83 / Droshchynskyi 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122200
Bondarenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Droshchynskyi1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBondarenko4wins
AwayDroshchynskyi1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBondarenko leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayDroshchynskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Droshchynskyi2n = 5Bondarenko took 3 of 5
S2Bondarenko3Droshchynskyi2n = 5Bondarenko took 3 of 5
S3Bondarenko4Droshchynskyi1n = 5Bondarenko took 4 of 5
S4Bondarenko2Droshchynskyi2n = 4split evenly
S5Bondarenko2Droshchynskyi1n = 3Bondarenko took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBondarenkoDroshchynskyiB − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match45.441.2+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoDroshchynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 99 vs 120 / 20853.5%57.7%53 / 99 vs 120 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiBondarenko 1.83/Droshchynskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 28 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko471141110113A. Droshchynskyi4681181272
LMay 24 · 07:30Y. Bondarenko47119111062A. Droshchynskyi47711612113
WFeb 22 · 10:00Y. Bondarenko4071111113A. Droshchynskyi37119891
WFeb 15 · 08:00Y. Bondarenko331111113A. Droshchynskyi208750
WFeb 1 · 10:00Y. Bondarenko6011131111143A. Droshchynskyi561311136132
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171LSep 9 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.739890O. Nadporozhskyi2.001111113WSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113
A. Droshchynskyi10
WSep 12 · 17:40A. Droshchynskyi1.5011118113Y. Holoborodko2.50941171WSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153LSep 12 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi1.73119911113A. Droshchynskyi2.0061111982WSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490WSep 12 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk3.258280A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113LSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110
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