TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122156
Played Sep 12Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012119116––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 78 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 55.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 17–48 Jaroslav Dohnal Jachym Sebl has won 17 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sebl beat Dohnal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-48 in 65
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 31 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1765 vs Dohnal 1569
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 100% vs Dohnal 60%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 100% vs Dohnal 70%
Sebl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +5 · Dohnal -2
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.25 / Dohnal 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Dohnal)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13122156
Sebl2.25
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Dohnal1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl4wins
AwayDohnal6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl60%3 of 5
AwayDohnal80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl5Dohnal5n = 10split evenly
S2Sebl2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S3Sebl3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S4Sebl4Dohnal3n = 7Sebl took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblDohnalS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.238.8−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 641 vs 403 / 67847.4%59.4%304 / 641 vs 403 / 678Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.940.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalSebl 2.25/Dohnal 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl43111011113J. Dohnal35812961
WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl4161111133J. Dohnal371196111
LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl4091011101J. Dohnal4411129123
WAug 28 · 19:25J. Sebl51116914113J. Dohnal49611111292
WAug 25 · 14:20J. Sebl45111112113J. Dohnal36791461
LAug 1 · 21:58J. Sebl156720J. Dohnal331111113
LAug 1 · 20:55J. Sebl411199121J. Dohnal4591111143
LJul 24 · 20:25J. Sebl238870J. Dohnal331111113
LJul 7 · 21:50J. Sebl208840J. Dohnal331111113
LJul 7 · 19:20J. Sebl23124431J. Dohnal43101111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123
J. Dohnal10
LSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131
Upcoming Matches
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