TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098086
Played Sep 8Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115117––––
Lukas Jirka
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:50 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Lukas Jirka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-7
Point 51 set 3, 8-7 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 55.9%
51 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 18–12 Lukas Jirka Lukas Jirka has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-12 in 30
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1543 vs Jirka 1576
Jirka
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 80% vs Jirka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 80% vs Jirka 60%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +2 · Jirka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jirka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.61 / Jirka 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dohnal)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13098086
Dohnal1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it70% 81 of 116
Jirka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog59% won 17 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal6wins
AwayJirka4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal85.7%6 of 7
AwayJirka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal7Jirka3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal9Jirka1n = 10Dohnal took 9 of 10
S3Dohnal5Jirka5n = 10split evenly
S4Dohnal1Jirka3n = 4Jirka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalJirkaD − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.830.3+4.5per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalJirkaBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 679 vs 101 / 19359.5%52.3%404 / 679 vs 101 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.61/Jirka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 18 · 20:20J. Dohnal—7970L. Jirka—1111113
LMay 27 · 20:50J. Dohnal—5116101L. Jirka—11911123
WApr 25 · 22:29J. Dohnal—11129113L. Jirka—6101171
WApr 25 · 20:25J. Dohnal—1111143L. Jirka—78120
LJan 10 · 13:55J. Dohnal—6119101L. Jirka—11411113
WDec 2 · 23:25J. Dohnal—1111113L. Jirka—6580
WDec 2 · 22:25J. Dohnal—1111113L. Jirka—4570
LNov 20 · 22:10J. Dohnal—111165102L. Jirka—391111123
WNov 12 · 19:20J. Dohnal—1211113L. Jirka—10680
WNov 3 · 22:50J. Dohnal—1311113L. Jirka—11580
J. Dohnal10
WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113
L. Jirka10
LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520WAug 18 · 22:10J. Cousin1.8313111051L. Jirka1.8315312113LAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172LAug 18 · 20:25J. Slavicek1.73711119113L. Jirka2.0011871182LAug 18 · 19:25L. Jirka1.731397131J. Cousin2.00111111153
Upcoming Matches
J. Dohnal
L. Jirka
Nothing scheduled
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