TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097346
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911811116117611
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:24 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 58.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 10–22 Jaroslav Dohnal Tomas Rein has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-22 in 32
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1539 vs Dohnal 1531
Rein
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 80% vs Dohnal 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 60% vs Dohnal 80%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein +2 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.25 / Dohnal 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Dohnal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13097346
Rein2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 95 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 86
Dohnal1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 115 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 57 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it70% 81 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein5wins
AwayDohnal5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDohnal37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S2Rein7Dohnal3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S3Rein4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Rein6Dohnal3n = 9Rein took 6 of 9
S5Rein3Dohnal3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinDohnalR − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.344.5−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 833 vs 403 / 67846.3%59.4%386 / 833 vs 403 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalRein 2.25/Dohnal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 17:30T. Rein—41111113J. Dohnal—119771
WAug 25 · 16:50T. Rein—911711123J. Dohnal—118119102
LAug 13 · 18:20T. Rein—11115552J. Dohnal—871111113
WAug 1 · 18:55T. Rein—712511113J. Dohnal—111011862
LJul 16 · 20:50T. Rein—86130J. Dohnal—1111153
WJul 12 · 17:55T. Rein—311511113J. Dohnal—11911982
WJul 12 · 16:50T. Rein—91511113J. Dohnal—1113991
LJul 10 · 18:20T. Rein—961181J. Dohnal—11118113
LJul 9 · 19:55T. Rein—81491172J. Dohnal—1112116113
LJul 3 · 20:25T. Rein—11911692J. Dohnal—711911113
T. Rein10
WSep 8 · 19:20T. Rein2.15711911113B. Budik1.5811111972WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990
J. Dohnal10
WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113
Upcoming Matches
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J. Dohnal
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