TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116209
Played Sep 11Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116811116––
Daniel Zelezny
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-6
Point 67 set 4, 9-6 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 57.9%
67 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jachym Sebl 20–17 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sebl beat Zelezny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:54What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-17 in 37
Sebl
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1704 vs Zelezny 1530
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 100% vs Zelezny 60%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 90% vs Zelezny 70%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +5 · Zelezny +1
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.60 / Zelezny 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Sebl)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13116209
Sebl1.60
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 66 of 87
Zelezny2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 6 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl5wins
AwayZelezny5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl80%4 of 5
AwayZelezny80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S2Sebl2Zelezny8n = 10Zelezny took 8 of 10
S3Sebl7Zelezny3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S4Sebl4Zelezny3n = 7Sebl took 4 of 7
S5Sebl2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblZeleznyS − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.8+0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 636 vs 107 / 20247%53%299 / 636 vs 107 / 202Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.60/Zelezny 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl—126911113D. Zelezny—101111792
WJun 1 · 16:50J. Sebl—11511113D. Zelezny—711371
LJan 24 · 12:25J. Sebl—118111062D. Zelezny—811612113
LJan 17 · 13:25J. Sebl—87100D. Zelezny—1111123
WJan 10 · 16:55J. Sebl—1491210103D. Zelezny—1211101272
LAug 24 · 18:15J. Sebl—59111282D. Zelezny—1111710113
WAug 24 · 15:40J. Sebl—51111133D. Zelezny—1127111
WJul 8 · 16:10J. Sebl—1111113D. Zelezny—3650
LJun 26 · 17:40J. Sebl—7970D. Zelezny—1111113
LJun 26 · 15:40J. Sebl—681181D. Zelezny—11117113
J. Sebl10
WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861
D. Zelezny10
WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540WJul 18 · 10:55D. Zelezny2.001111113O. Knazik1.738520WJul 4 · 14:04D. Zelezny1.831110811113P. Vodal1.8381211882WJul 4 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.73561211113P. Vodal2.00111110852LJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein2.751171111113D. Zelezny1.4013117382
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