TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113606
Played Sep 11Finished
Daniel Zelezny
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191012114––
Tomas Rein
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:24 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Tomas Rein below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Daniel Zelezny at 59.4%
74 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 3–2 Tomas Rein Tomas Rein has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:24What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1528 vs Rein 1550
Rein
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 80% vs Rein 40%
Zelezny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 70% vs Rein 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny +1 · Rein +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.44 / Rein 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Zelezny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13113606
Zelezny1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 26 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Rein2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 96 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back21% 35 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZelezny3wins
AwayRein2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderZelezny leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeleznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRein66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny2Rein3n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S2Zelezny2Rein3n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S3Zelezny2Rein3n = 5Rein took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricZeleznyReinZ − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match34.032.4+1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznyReinBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 203 vs 388 / 83352.7%46.6%107 / 203 vs 388 / 833Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyZelezny 1.44/Rein 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 4 · 16:50D. Zelezny—1112113T. Rein—71060
LMay 29 · 17:20D. Zelezny—9880T. Rein—1111113
WMay 29 · 14:50D. Zelezny—41111123T. Rein—1174101
LMay 16 · 18:03D. Zelezny—9880T. Rein—1111113
WMay 16 · 15:25D. Zelezny—1110511113T. Rein—71211382
D. Zelezny10
WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540WJul 18 · 10:55D. Zelezny2.001111113O. Knazik1.738520WJul 4 · 14:04D. Zelezny1.831110811113P. Vodal1.8381211882WJul 4 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.73561211113P. Vodal2.00111110852LJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein2.751171111113D. Zelezny1.4013117382LJul 4 · 11:25A. Jr3.50581111113D. Zelezny1.2811116972WJun 28 · 10:30J. Cousin2.381114131042D. Zelezny1.538161112113WJun 28 · 08:55D. Zelezny1.80911114123J. Osmera1.91118511102
T. Rein10
LSep 11 · 15:20L. Rek1.331111113T. Rein3.259460WSep 10 · 10:04T. Rein2.3811711113J. Osmera1.53711941LSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113LSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780WSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113LSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101WSep 8 · 19:20T. Rein2.15711911113B. Budik1.5811111972LSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein2.751171111113D. Zelezny1.4013117382
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