TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114144
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119611911––
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Rein to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Rein at 57.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 30–9 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 9 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rein
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-9 in 39
Rein
Wrong
gap of 21 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1519 vs Sebl 1671
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 20% vs Sebl 100%
Sebl
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 40% vs Sebl 80%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -2 · Sebl +5
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rein) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 1.67 / Sebl 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rein)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13114144
Rein1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite65% won 66 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 51 of 70
Sebl2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 72 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein8wins
AwaySebl2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRein leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein100%6 of 6
AwaySebl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein6Sebl4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S2Rein7Sebl3n = 10Rein took 7 of 10
S3Rein6Sebl4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S4Rein5Sebl0n = 5Rein took 5 of 5
S5Rein2Sebl1n = 3Rein took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinSeblR − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.531.0+7.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 835 vs 298 / 63546.5%46.9%388 / 835 vs 298 / 635Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReinRein 1.67/Sebl 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rein · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 20:20T. Rein—6890J. Sebl—1111113
WAug 17 · 12:20T. Rein—1111113J. Sebl—5550
WAug 16 · 21:29T. Rein—712911113J. Sebl—111011972
WAug 16 · 18:20T. Rein—1111113J. Sebl—8890
LAug 7 · 19:55T. Rein—101191192J. Sebl—123118113
WAug 1 · 20:25T. Rein—1111113J. Sebl—6580
WJun 26 · 10:10T. Rein—1111113J. Sebl—3770
WJun 26 · 08:25T. Rein—11128123J. Sebl—81011101
WMay 25 · 14:05T. Rein—5111113113J. Sebl—111341142
WMay 25 · 11:55T. Rein—11311113J. Sebl—411651
T. Rein10
LSep 11 · 17:23L. Rek1.30116811113T. Rein3.4081111562LSep 11 · 15:20L. Rek1.331111113T. Rein3.259460LSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WSep 10 · 10:04T. Rein2.3811711113J. Osmera1.53711941LSep 10 · 09:25T. Rein2.2061161152V. Koutnik1.61119115113LSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780WSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113LSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101WSep 8 · 19:20T. Rein2.15711911113B. Budik1.5811111972
J. Sebl10
WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123
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