TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114168
Played Sep 11Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611911117119
Daniel Zelezny
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Daniel Zelezny at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 19–17 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelezny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Sebl
Correct
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1656 vs Zelezny 1540
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 80% vs Zelezny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 80% vs Zelezny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +4 · Zelezny +2
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zelezny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.00 / Zelezny 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezny)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13114168
Sebl2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 72 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Zelezny1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 26 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl4wins
AwayZelezny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZelezny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl75%3 of 4
AwayZelezny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Zelezny6n = 10Zelezny took 6 of 10
S2Sebl2Zelezny8n = 10Zelezny took 8 of 10
S3Sebl7Zelezny3n = 10Sebl took 7 of 10
S4Sebl3Zelezny3n = 6split evenly
S5Sebl1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblZeleznyS − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.936.3−0.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 634 vs 106 / 20046.9%53%297 / 634 vs 106 / 200Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznySebl 2.00/Zelezny 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 1 · 16:50J. Sebl—11511113D. Zelezny—711371
LJan 24 · 12:25J. Sebl—118111062D. Zelezny—811612113
LJan 17 · 13:25J. Sebl—87100D. Zelezny—1111123
WJan 10 · 16:55J. Sebl—1491210103D. Zelezny—1211101272
LAug 24 · 18:15J. Sebl—59111282D. Zelezny—1111710113
WAug 24 · 15:40J. Sebl—51111133D. Zelezny—1127111
WJul 8 · 16:10J. Sebl—1111113D. Zelezny—3650
LJun 26 · 17:40J. Sebl—7970D. Zelezny—1111113
LJun 26 · 15:40J. Sebl—681181D. Zelezny—11117113
LMay 3 · 07:50J. Sebl—6690D. Zelezny—1111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152
D. Zelezny10
WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540WJul 18 · 10:55D. Zelezny2.001111113O. Knazik1.738520WJul 4 · 14:04D. Zelezny1.831110811113P. Vodal1.8381211882WJul 4 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.73561211113P. Vodal2.00111110852LJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein2.751171111113D. Zelezny1.4013117382LJul 4 · 11:25A. Jr3.50581111113D. Zelezny1.2811116972
Upcoming Matches
J. Sebl
D. Zelezny
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