TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119575
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11812105117111210
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 57.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 7–14 Jaroslav Dohnal Martin Boltik has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1523 vs Dohnal 1595
Dohnal
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 40% vs Dohnal 80%
Dohnal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 50% vs Dohnal 80%
Dohnal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik -2 · Dohnal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 2.10 / Dohnal 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dohnal)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13119575
Boltik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Dohnal1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoltik2wins
AwayDohnal8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltik0%0 of 3
AwayDohnal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik3Dohnal7n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Boltik4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S3Boltik2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S4Boltik7Dohnal2n = 9Boltik took 7 of 9
S5Boltik2Dohnal5n = 7Dohnal took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoltikDohnalB − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.945.5−5.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 112 vs 405 / 67858.9%59.7%66 / 112 vs 405 / 678Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalBoltik 2.10/Dohnal 1.67
Miss
What we said
57.4%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boltik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 6 · 20:50M. Boltik331161061J. Dohnal4391112113
LApr 25 · 18:55M. Boltik4251181172J. Dohnal47116118113
LDec 6 · 19:50M. Boltik3810117101J. Dohnal4412911123
LNov 22 · 21:50M. Boltik45111151262J. Dohnal501351110113
LSep 27 · 21:25M. Boltik4311851182J. Dohnal50911118113
LSep 5 · 21:10M. Boltik50991111102J. Dohnal48111168123
LJul 9 · 22:05M. Boltik4011561172J. Dohnal49811118113
LJul 9 · 20:55M. Boltik199370J. Dohnal331111113
WJul 1 · 19:50M. Boltik46731312113J. Dohnal491111111062
WMay 7 · 21:50M. Boltik43411611113J. Dohnal4211911382
M. Boltik10
WSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113LSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123LSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791
J. Dohnal10
LSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961LSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131
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