TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119490
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 1–3 Jachym Sebl Martin Boltik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Boltik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sebl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1577 vs Sebl 1722
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 60% vs Sebl 100%
Sebl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 70% vs Sebl 90%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik +1 · Sebl +5
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boltik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.61 / Sebl 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sebl)+3.7pp
TT Cup · #13119490
Boltik1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 22 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Sebl2.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBoltik1wins
AwaySebl3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSebl leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoltik33.3%1 of 3
AwaySebln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik3Sebl1n = 4Boltik took 3 of 4
S2Boltik1Sebl3n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
S3Boltik2Sebl2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricBoltikSeblB − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.238.0+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 110 vs 300 / 63760%47.1%66 / 110 vs 300 / 637Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.61/Sebl 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 6 · 18:50M. Boltik31131170J. Sebl391513113
WNov 15 · 19:55M. Boltik341111123J. Sebl2055100
LJun 23 · 19:05M. Boltik49118119102J. Sebl44611411123
LJan 2 · 20:20M. Boltik4311781162J. Sebl49811118113
M. Boltik10
WSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113WSep 12 · 20:55M. Boltik2.10111257123J. Dohnal1.678101111102LSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791
J. Sebl10
WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792
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