TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123085
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711211––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:23 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 50 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 58.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 1–3 Jachym Sebl Lukas Jirka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:23What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Sebl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1522 vs Sebl 1769
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 20% vs Sebl 100%
Sebl
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 50% vs Sebl 100%
Sebl
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka +1 · Sebl +5
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 2.25 / Sebl 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sebl)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13123085
Jirka2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 16 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Sebl1.57
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 77 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 61 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJirka1wins
AwaySebl3wins
Sebl leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJirka33.3%1 of 3
AwaySebln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka3Sebl1n = 4Jirka took 3 of 4
S2Jirka0Sebl4n = 4Sebl took 4 of 4
S3Jirka2Sebl2n = 4split evenly
S4Jirka1Sebl3n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away375%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJirkaSeblJ − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match32.237.8−5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 194 vs 305 / 64251.6%47.5%100 / 194 vs 305 / 642Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblJirka 2.25/Sebl 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJun 21 · 18:50L. Jirka3911611113J. Sebl29611661
LMay 10 · 18:55L. Jirka30661171J. Sebl4211119113
LNov 12 · 20:20L. Jirka35118971J. Sebl4291111113
LMay 15 · 20:20L. Jirka25115451J. Sebl3851111113
L. Jirka10
WSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113LSep 8 · 21:20L. Jirka1.80851191B. Budik1.9111118113LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101LSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520
J. Sebl10
LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961WSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113
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