TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13123068
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Jirka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161175116111210
Daniel Zelezny
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:24 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Jirka above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 90 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Daniel Zelezny at 57.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Jirka 2–2 Daniel Zelezny Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:24What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelezny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jirka 1501 vs Zelezny 1501
Zelezny
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jirka 20% vs Zelezny 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jirka 50% vs Zelezny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jirka -4 · Zelezny -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zelezny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJirka 2.20 / Zelezny 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Zelezny)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13123068
Jirka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 16 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Zelezny1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJirka2wins
AwayZelezny2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jirka2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
S2Jirka1Zelezny3n = 4Zelezny took 3 of 4
S3Jirka3Zelezny1n = 4Jirka took 3 of 4
S4Jirka2Zelezny2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJirkaZeleznyJ − ZBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match42.837.5+5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJirkaZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 193 vs 108 / 20851.3%51.9%99 / 193 vs 108 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyJirka 2.20/Zelezny 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jirka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LMay 24 · 15:25L. Jirka376911111D. Zelezny3811113133
WOct 27 · 19:45L. Jirka50119811113D. Zelezny4291111562
LOct 27 · 16:55L. Jirka4471111782D. Zelezny46115811113
WMar 27 · 20:50L. Jirka4011711113D. Zelezny24611611
L. Jirka10
LSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 10:55L. Jirka1.7388191152L. Rek2.001111173113LSep 8 · 21:20L. Jirka1.80851191B. Budik1.9111118113LSep 8 · 20:20T. Rein3.0081114123L. Jirka1.3611312101LSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:50L. Jirka1.861012911113B. Budik1.80121011852LAug 25 · 22:25L. Jirka1.57145571J. Cousin2.25121111113WAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 20:25J. Cousin2.00871171L. Jirka1.7311117113WAug 25 · 19:25L. Jirka1.501111113P. Kubat2.502520
D. Zelezny10
LSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182LSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113LSep 12 · 21:25D. Zelezny1.839101161J. Sebl1.8311129113WSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123LSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891LSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992
Upcoming Matches
L. Jirka
Nothing scheduled
D. Zelezny
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