TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119869
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Boltik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111155111012––
Daniel Zelezny
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Boltik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Boltik above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 68 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Martin Boltik at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Martin Boltik 1–2 Daniel Zelezny Martin Boltik has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:46What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Boltik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boltik 1562 vs Zelezny 1494
Boltik
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boltik 40% vs Zelezny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boltik 60% vs Zelezny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Boltik -1 · Zelezny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Boltik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoltik 1.80 / Zelezny 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Boltik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13119869
Boltik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 22 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Zelezny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBoltik1wins
AwayZelezny2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderZelezny leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boltik1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
S2Boltik1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
S3Boltik3Zelezny0n = 3Boltik took 3 of 3
S4Boltik1Zelezny2n = 3Zelezny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBoltikZeleznyB − ZBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.739.3+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoltikZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 111 vs 107 / 20459.5%52.5%66 / 111 vs 107 / 204Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltikBoltik 1.80/Zelezny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Boltik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LApr 12 · 21:25M. Boltik43101111472D. Zelezny45125611113
LApr 12 · 20:50M. Boltik368111161D. Zelezny4411139113
WFeb 15 · 20:55M. Boltik4011711113D. Zelezny29811551
M. Boltik10
LSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WAug 25 · 21:55M. Boltik1.57149118123P. Kubat2.251211411102LAug 25 · 20:55M. Boltik1.61561171L. Jirka2.2011119113WAug 25 · 19:55M. Boltik1.731111119113P. Kubat2.0019131142LAug 25 · 18:55M. Boltik1.5381080J. Cousin2.381112113WAug 18 · 22:40J. Slavicek1.5388111542M. Boltik2.381111713113WAug 18 · 20:55M. Boltik1.83311115113L. Jirka1.8311171172WAug 18 · 19:55M. Boltik1.8311711113J. Cousin1.83611791LAug 18 · 18:55M. Boltik2.38911521J. Slavicek1.5311611113WAug 2 · 21:54M. Boltik1.44511911113R. Zeman2.6311611472
D. Zelezny10
LSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891LSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540WJul 18 · 10:55D. Zelezny2.001111113O. Knazik1.738520WJul 4 · 14:04D. Zelezny1.831110811113P. Vodal1.8381211882
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.