TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119488
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119118119––
Daniel Zelezny
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 56.2%
81 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 22–13 Daniel Zelezny Daniel Zelezny has won 13 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:57What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-13 in 35
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 9 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1585 vs Zelezny 1512
Dohnal
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 100% vs Zelezny 60%
Dohnal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 90% vs Zelezny 70%
Dohnal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal +5 · Zelezny -1
Dohnal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.67 / Zelezny 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dohnal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13119488
Dohnal1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Zelezny2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 7 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal5wins
AwayZelezny5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal80%4 of 5
AwayZelezny80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal5Zelezny5n = 10split evenly
S2Dohnal7Zelezny3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S3Dohnal6Zelezny4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal4Zelezny3n = 7Dohnal took 4 of 7
S5Dohnal1Zelezny4n = 5Zelezny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalZeleznyD − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.4+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 682 vs 107 / 20359.7%52.7%407 / 682 vs 107 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.67/Zelezny 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 30 · 15:55J. Dohnal50101113972D. Zelezny521271111113
WApr 13 · 20:20J. Dohnal4312911113D. Zelezny321011651
LMar 28 · 11:55J. Dohnal2561270D. Zelezny361114113
WMar 22 · 12:20J. Dohnal351311113D. Zelezny2311570
LMar 8 · 13:55J. Dohnal4681361182D. Zelezny531111119113
LFeb 14 · 13:25J. Dohnal521012101192D. Zelezny511210126113
WJan 25 · 11:40J. Dohnal51121198113D. Zelezny49109111182
WJan 25 · 09:25J. Dohnal4071111113D. Zelezny36119971
WJan 24 · 15:35J. Dohnal38141593D. Zelezny31121360
LJan 24 · 14:25J. Dohnal4411511892D. Zelezny51911911113
J. Dohnal10
WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113
D. Zelezny10
WSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.80311511D. Zelezny1.911151112LSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540WJul 18 · 10:55D. Zelezny2.001111113O. Knazik1.738520WJul 4 · 14:04D. Zelezny1.831110811113P. Vodal1.8381211882
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