TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119272
Played Sep 12Finished
Daniel Zelezny
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012119611––
Jachym Sebl
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Zelezny above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Zelezny 17–21 Jachym Sebl Daniel Zelezny has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Sebl
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezny 1533 vs Sebl 1745
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezny 40% vs Sebl 100%
Sebl
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezny 60% vs Sebl 90%
Sebl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezny +1 · Sebl +5
Sebl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezny 1.83 / Sebl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sebl)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13119272
Zelezny1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sebl1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezny4wins
AwaySebl6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSebl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezny75%3 of 4
AwaySebl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezny4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S2Zelezny7Sebl3n = 10Zelezny took 7 of 10
S3Zelezny4Sebl6n = 10Sebl took 6 of 10
S4Zelezny2Sebl5n = 7Sebl took 5 of 7
S5Zelezny2Sebl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZeleznySeblZ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.639.5−2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZeleznySeblBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 205 vs 302 / 63952.7%47.3%108 / 205 vs 302 / 639Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblZelezny 1.83/Sebl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 17:55D. Zelezny28561161J. Sebl4111118113
LSep 11 · 15:50D. Zelezny48101111792J. Sebl49126911113
LJun 1 · 16:50D. Zelezny28711371J. Sebl3811511113
WJan 24 · 12:25D. Zelezny48811612113J. Sebl46118111062
WJan 17 · 13:25D. Zelezny341111123J. Sebl2587100
LJan 10 · 16:55D. Zelezny521211101272J. Sebl551491210103
WAug 24 · 18:15D. Zelezny501111710113J. Sebl4559111282
LAug 24 · 15:40D. Zelezny311127111J. Sebl4051111133
LJul 8 · 16:10D. Zelezny143650J. Sebl331111113
WJun 26 · 17:40D. Zelezny331111113J. Sebl237970
D. Zelezny10
LSep 12 · 21:58D. Zelezny1.671011561M. Boltik2.1012811113WSep 12 · 19:55M. Boltik1.803115101D. Zelezny1.9111511123LSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891LSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:20L. Rek1.408530D. Zelezny2.751111113LSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.44111110113T. Rein2.63691241WJul 18 · 14:24D. Zelezny2.29911511113C. Kratochvil1.5111711992LJul 18 · 12:55D. Zelezny1.7391171262C. Kratochvil2.001191110113WJul 18 · 11:55D. Zelezny2.381311113T. Hnizdil1.5311540
J. Sebl10
WSep 12 · 22:30J. Sebl2.25111011113J. Dohnal1.57812961WSep 12 · 20:25J. Sebl2.7561111133J. Dohnal1.401196111WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123
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