TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13119528
Played Sep 12Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111191161311––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 78 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 70.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 15–48 Jaroslav Dohnal Jachym Sebl has won 15 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-48 in 63
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 33 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1737 vs Dohnal 1603
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 100% vs Dohnal 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 90% vs Dohnal 90%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +5 · Dohnal +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.75 / Dohnal 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Dohnal)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13119528
Sebl2.75
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Dohnal1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it92% 60 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl2wins
AwayDohnal8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl50%2 of 4
AwayDohnal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Sebl1Dohnal9n = 10Dohnal took 9 of 10
S3Sebl1Dohnal9n = 10Dohnal took 9 of 10
S4Sebl2Dohnal3n = 5Dohnal took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblDohnalS − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.338.4−8.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 638 vs 405 / 67747.2%59.8%301 / 638 vs 405 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.940.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalSebl 2.75/Dohnal 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.4%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl4091011101J. Dohnal4411129123
WAug 28 · 19:25J. Sebl51116914113J. Dohnal49611111292
WAug 25 · 14:20J. Sebl45111112113J. Dohnal36791461
LAug 1 · 21:58J. Sebl156720J. Dohnal331111113
LAug 1 · 20:55J. Sebl411199121J. Dohnal4591111143
LJul 24 · 20:25J. Sebl238870J. Dohnal331111113
LJul 7 · 21:50J. Sebl208840J. Dohnal331111113
LJul 7 · 19:20J. Sebl23124431J. Dohnal43101111113
LJul 6 · 21:50J. Sebl163670J. Dohnal331111113
LJul 6 · 19:50J. Sebl2991190J. Dohnal351113113
J. Sebl10
WSep 12 · 18:55M. Boltik1.617990J. Sebl2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:55J. Sebl1.6011118113D. Zelezny2.20561161WSep 11 · 16:50T. Rein1.67511691J. Sebl2.1011911113WSep 11 · 15:50J. Sebl2.00126911113D. Zelezny1.73101111792WSep 11 · 14:20L. Rek2.257760J. Sebl1.571111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890
J. Dohnal10
WSep 12 · 19:25J. Dohnal1.67101111113D. Zelezny2.10129891WSep 8 · 21:48J. Dohnal1.611111113T. Rein2.205870WSep 8 · 20:50B. Budik1.75781261J. Dohnal1.95111110113WSep 8 · 19:50J. Dohnal1.611111113L. Jirka2.209570WSep 8 · 18:20T. Rein2.2598111162J. Dohnal1.57111167113WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113
Upcoming Matches
J. Sebl
J. Dohnal
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