TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122080
Played Sep 13Finished
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614116116––––
Pavel Moulis
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:54 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePavel Moulis to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Dufek Jnr above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 64 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Moulis at 62.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek Jnr 3–4 Pavel Moulis Jakub Dufek Jnr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moulis
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1353 vs Moulis 1318
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 40% vs Moulis 0%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Moulis 30%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -2 · Moulis -5
Moulis
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moulis)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.50 / Moulis 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Moulis)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122080
Jnr2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 74 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Moulis1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayMoulis4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMoulis leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMoulis60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr2Moulis5n = 7Moulis took 5 of 7
S2Jnr3Moulis4n = 7Moulis took 4 of 7
S3Jnr2Moulis5n = 7Moulis took 5 of 7
S4Jnr2Moulis3n = 5Moulis took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricJnrMoulisJ − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match34.137.9−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 474 vs 192 / 43051.7%44.7%245 / 474 vs 192 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoulisJnr 2.50/Moulis 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Moulis · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 9 · 12:58J. Jnr186480P. Moulis331111113
LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr184860P. Moulis331111113
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr4111118113P. Moulis32971151
WAug 28 · 09:30J. Jnr46711611113P. Moulis4411711692
WAug 14 · 15:00J. Jnr474111110113P. Moulis4211491262
LJul 24 · 20:59J. Jnr371112771P. Moulis4041411113
LJul 24 · 20:00J. Jnr32391191P. Moulis4111118113
J. Jnr10
LSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122LSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113LSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102WSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480LSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:30M. Melisek1.5381161192J. Jnr2.38118119113WSep 9 · 10:00J. Blazek2.10125991J. Jnr1.67101111113
P. Moulis10
LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133LSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113
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