TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122076
Played Sep 13Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214911611––––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 63 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 56.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 142–147 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Kozachuk has won 142 of their 289 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
142-147 in 289
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 5 in 289, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1746 vs Pesternikov 1925
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 60% vs Pesternikov 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 40% vs Pesternikov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Pesternikov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 2.20 / Pesternikov 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13122076
Kozachuk2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Pesternikov1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 214 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it95% 120 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it85% 172 of 202
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk4wins
AwayPesternikov6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk50%2 of 4
AwayPesternikov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S2Kozachuk8Pesternikov2n = 10Kozachuk took 8 of 10
S3Kozachuk3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk4Pesternikov4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukPesternikovK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.8−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1091 vs 586 / 109749.8%53.4%543 / 1091 vs 586 / 1097Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovKozachuk 2.20/Pesternikov 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk4211140982D. Pesternikov538121111113
WSep 6 · 22:45I. Kozachuk341211113D. Pesternikov2610970
LSep 3 · 22:30I. Kozachuk31711581D. Pesternikov3911611113
WSep 1 · 08:55I. Kozachuk3521111113D. Pesternikov32118941
WAug 31 · 14:25I. Kozachuk3711114113D. Pesternikov33791161
LAug 28 · 02:00I. Kozachuk31117761D. Pesternikov4071111113
WAug 25 · 06:55I. Kozachuk4061112113D. Pesternikov311131071
LAug 24 · 14:25I. Kozachuk134630D. Pesternikov331111113
LAug 18 · 07:05I. Kozachuk4391141182D. Pesternikov47118116113
LAug 17 · 14:35I. Kozachuk3410111031D. Pesternikov4412912113
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 11 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.256730LSep 11 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8011911962D. Shcherbak1.91611411113WSep 11 · 24:00I. Kozachuk1.361111113R. Haiseniuk3.009790WSep 10 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.911211113N. Kovalchuk1.8010380WSep 10 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.731411123I. Romaniak2.00129100LSep 8 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.1011116113I. Kozachuk1.67871181LSep 8 · 09:25I. Kozachuk2.25117941S. Rak1.5751111113LSep 8 · 08:25I. Kozachuk1.8011811682N. Kovalchuk1.91311611113LSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191WSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640LSep 10 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4.501117671A. Molochko1.1761911113LSep 10 · 13:55D. Pesternikov5.50116761N. Danyliuk1.1381111113LSep 10 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.8098121172B. Kohut1.911111107113LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113LSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
D. Pesternikov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.