TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105974
Played Sep 10Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
5.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611711611––
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.13
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 85.8% is still 85.8%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
85.8%
85.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 85.8%
71 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1899 vs Danyliuk 2081
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 40% vs Danyliuk 80%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Danyliuk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov -3 · Danyliuk +1
Pesternikov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Danyliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 5.50 / Danyliuk 1.13
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Danyliuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105974
Pesternikov5.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 98 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 59
Danyliuk1.13
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 119 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1101 vs 586 / 96853.5%60.5%589 / 1101 vs 586 / 968Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukPesternikov 5.50/Danyliuk 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.8%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Danyliuk won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 10 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.8098121172B. Kohut1.911111107113LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113LSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440WSep 8 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.2511140982D. Pesternikov1.578121111113WSep 8 · 05:25D. Pesternikov1.5011811113S. Rak2.50811461WSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2.7571050D. Pesternikov1.401112113WSep 7 · 16:55D. Pesternikov1.501311113S. Rak2.5011550WSep 7 · 15:55D. Pesternikov1.2811118113D. Shcherbak3.50941161LSep 7 · 14:25D. Pesternikov1.531061171Y. Kravets2.3812117113
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 10 · 12:25A. Molochko2.10561171N. Danyliuk1.6711115113LSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291WSep 8 · 09:35N. Danyliuk1.3381111113B. Kohut3.25115981WSep 8 · 08:35N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.405350WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.0811119113A. Zeniuk7.00661131WSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113WSep 7 · 16:05N. Danyliuk1.081114113A. Zeniuk7.0071280LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113
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