TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089082
Played Sep 7Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111711211––––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:51 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-11
Point 43 set 3, 2-11 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 66.9%
43 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 181–71 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 71 of their 252 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Danyliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
181-71 in 252
Danyliuk
Wrong
gap of 110 in 252, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2061 vs Verbyany 1952
Danyliuk
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 80% vs Verbyany 40%
Danyliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 70% vs Verbyany 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +2 · Verbyany +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.53 / Verbyany 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Danyliuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089082
Danyliuk1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 155 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it95% 77 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it80% 117 of 147
Verbyany2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 92 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk8wins
AwayVerbyany2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk87.5%7 of 8
AwayVerbyanyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk8Verbyany2n = 10Danyliuk took 8 of 10
S2Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S3Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S4Danyliuk5Verbyany2n = 7Danyliuk took 5 of 7
S5Danyliuk1Verbyany2n = 3Verbyany took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyD − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.430.7+9.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 973 vs 323 / 78560.6%41.2%590 / 973 vs 323 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.53/Verbyany 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.2%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk—1111113V. Verbyany—7740
LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk—81191182V. Verbyany—114119113
WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk—1111113V. Verbyany—6440
WSep 3 · 13:55N. Danyliuk—11911113V. Verbyany—511581
WAug 31 · 14:35N. Danyliuk—117116123V. Verbyany—411611102
WAug 30 · 22:30N. Danyliuk—11117113V. Verbyany—871141
WAug 25 · 05:05N. Danyliuk—1111113V. Verbyany—1580
LAug 24 · 14:35N. Danyliuk—11615852V. Verbyany—9111311113
WAug 23 · 22:30N. Danyliuk—71111113V. Verbyany—117641
WAug 21 · 08:55N. Danyliuk—111111113V. Verbyany—911381
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262LSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:00N. Danyliuk1.331511910113D. Zeniuk3.25136111252WSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123LSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113
V. Verbyany10
WSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140WSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113
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