TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084159
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117114––––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 66.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 180–70 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 70 of their 250 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
180-70 in 250
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 110 in 250, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2066 vs Verbyany 1960
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 60% vs Verbyany 100%
Verbyany
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 60% vs Verbyany 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +2 · Verbyany +5
Verbyany
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Danyliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.50 / Verbyany 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Danyliuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084159
Danyliuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it80% 116 of 146
Verbyany2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk9wins
AwayVerbyany1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDanyliuk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk87.5%7 of 8
AwayVerbyanyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk8Verbyany2n = 10Danyliuk took 8 of 10
S2Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S3Danyliuk7Verbyany3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S4Danyliuk5Verbyany2n = 7Danyliuk took 5 of 7
S5Danyliuk2Verbyany1n = 3Danyliuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyD − VBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.530.8+9.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime586 / 967 vs 321 / 78060.6%41.2%586 / 967 vs 321 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.50/Verbyany 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk—1111113V. Verbyany—6440
WSep 3 · 13:55N. Danyliuk—11911113V. Verbyany—511581
WAug 31 · 14:35N. Danyliuk—117116123V. Verbyany—411611102
WAug 30 · 22:30N. Danyliuk—11117113V. Verbyany—871141
WAug 25 · 05:05N. Danyliuk—1111113V. Verbyany—1580
LAug 24 · 14:35N. Danyliuk—11615852V. Verbyany—9111311113
WAug 23 · 22:30N. Danyliuk—71111113V. Verbyany—117641
WAug 21 · 08:55N. Danyliuk—111111113V. Verbyany—911381
WAug 20 · 17:25N. Danyliuk—1211113V. Verbyany—10370
WAug 19 · 21:30N. Danyliuk—713511113V. Verbyany—111111572
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262LSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181WSep 6 · 20:00N. Danyliuk1.331511910113D. Zeniuk3.25136111252WSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123LSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113WSep 4 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.06111811113A. Zeniuk8.00220661WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
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