TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089412
Played Sep 7Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51111131210511––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:21 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 66.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 152–72 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 72 of their 224 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Molochko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
152-72 in 224
Molochko
Wrong
gap of 80 in 224, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1973 vs Verbyany 1965
Molochko
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 80% vs Verbyany 60%
Molochko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 70% vs Verbyany 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +3 · Verbyany +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.57 / Verbyany 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Molochko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13089412
Molochko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 147 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 127
Verbyany2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 92 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko7wins
AwayVerbyany3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko83.3%5 of 6
AwayVerbyany50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Verbyany3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Verbyany3n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyM − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.1+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 932 vs 324 / 78658.7%41.2%547 / 932 vs 324 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.57/Verbyany 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 09:53A. Molochko—127431V. Verbyany—101111113
LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko—51214792V. Verbyany—11101211113
WSep 3 · 12:55A. Molochko—11118113V. Verbyany—441181
WAug 31 · 16:35A. Molochko—61112113V. Verbyany—1161051
LAug 31 · 24:30A. Molochko—9101171V. Verbyany—11127113
WAug 25 · 07:35A. Molochko—11611113V. Verbyany—811611
WAug 24 · 16:35A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—8470
WAug 21 · 06:55A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—9880
WAug 20 · 18:55A. Molochko—711911113V. Verbyany—11511862
WAug 4 · 04:35A. Molochko—11117113V. Verbyany—781161
A. Molochko10
WSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482WSep 7 · 12:05A. Molochko1.201191210113A. Zeniuk4.33811101272LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110
V. Verbyany10
WSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140WSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580
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A. Molochko
V. Verbyany
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