TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13076742
Played Sep 4Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012117114113––
Anton Molochko
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Anton Molochko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3
69 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 71–152 Anton Molochko Vasily Verbyany has won 71 of their 223 meetings.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Molochko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 2.38 / Molochko 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Molochko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13076742
Verbyany2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 93 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Molochko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 153 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it85% 110 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany3wins
AwayMolochko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany60%3 of 5
AwayMolochko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany5Molochko5n = 10split evenly
S2Verbyany3Molochko7n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Verbyany4Molochko6n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany2Molochko5n = 7Molochko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoV − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.138.3−5.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyMolochkoBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 778 vs 547 / 93341%58.6%319 / 778 vs 547 / 933Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoVerbyany 2.38/Molochko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:55V. Verbyany—11101211113A. Molochko—51214792
LSep 3 · 12:55V. Verbyany—441181A. Molochko—11118113
LAug 31 · 16:35V. Verbyany—1161051A. Molochko—61112113
WAug 31 · 24:30V. Verbyany—11127113A. Molochko—9101171
LAug 25 · 07:35V. Verbyany—811611A. Molochko—11611113
LAug 24 · 16:35V. Verbyany—8470A. Molochko—1111113
LAug 21 · 06:55V. Verbyany—9880A. Molochko—1111113
LAug 20 · 18:55V. Verbyany—11511862A. Molochko—711911113
LAug 4 · 04:35V. Verbyany—781161A. Molochko—11117113
WAug 3 · 18:05V. Verbyany—1111113A. Molochko—9690
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
A. Molochko10
LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153
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