TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085038
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111198111315––
Dmytro Zeniuk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:18 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 85 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 55.3%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 49–32 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 32 of their 81 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-32 in 81
Verbyany
Wrong
gap of 17 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1950 vs Zeniuk 2015
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 80% vs Zeniuk 40%
Verbyany
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 70% vs Zeniuk 50%
Verbyany
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -1 · Zeniuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.61 / Zeniuk 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Verbyany)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13085038
Verbyany1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 42 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Zeniuk2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany5wins
AwayZeniuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany71.4%5 of 7
AwayZeniuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany7Zeniuk3n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S2Verbyany4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S3Verbyany4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany3Zeniuk4n = 7Zeniuk took 4 of 7
S5Verbyany2Zeniuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyZeniukV − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.4−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 781 vs 370 / 72441.1%51.1%321 / 781 vs 370 / 724Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.61/Zeniuk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 18:35V. Verbyany—11911992D. Zeniuk—911811113
WAug 31 · 02:30V. Verbyany—118311113D. Zeniuk—41111682
LAug 25 · 08:35V. Verbyany—3960D. Zeniuk—1111113
WAug 24 · 18:35V. Verbyany—118115113D. Zeniuk—81161192
LAug 23 · 23:30V. Verbyany—6680D. Zeniuk—1111113
WAug 21 · 10:55V. Verbyany—11119113D. Zeniuk—471171
WAug 20 · 13:25V. Verbyany—1111113D. Zeniuk—4790
LAug 19 · 20:00V. Verbyany—811491D. Zeniuk—11811113
LAug 4 · 10:05V. Verbyany—11126272D. Zeniuk—8101111113
WMar 13 · 03:45V. Verbyany—11911113D. Zeniuk—911481
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
D. Zeniuk10
LSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871WSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 6 · 20:00N. Danyliuk1.331511910113D. Zeniuk3.25136111252LSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123WSep 4 · 08:25D. Zeniuk1.501113113A. Zeniuk2.5071140LSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561WSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113WSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153LSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
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