TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072409
Played Sep 4Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113115118––––
Andrii Zeniuk
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:48 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Andrii Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 49 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 77.5%
49 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 17–5 Andrii Zeniuk Andrii Zeniuk has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Verbyany
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1954 vs Zeniuk 1790
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 60% vs Zeniuk 40%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Zeniuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +1 · Zeniuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.28 / Zeniuk 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Verbyany)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13072409
Verbyany1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 42 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Zeniuk3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany8wins
AwayZeniuk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVerbyany leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany85.7%6 of 7
AwayZeniuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany7Zeniuk3n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S2Verbyany7Zeniuk3n = 10Verbyany took 7 of 10
S3Verbyany6Zeniuk4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany4Zeniuk4n = 8split evenly
S5Verbyany3Zeniuk1n = 4Verbyany took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyZeniukV − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.235.9+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 779 vs 278 / 50741.1%54.8%320 / 779 vs 278 / 507Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.28/Zeniuk 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany—1111113A. Zeniuk—3580
WSep 3 · 15:25V. Verbyany—12911113A. Zeniuk—1011961
WAug 31 · 15:35V. Verbyany—1111113A. Zeniuk—3960
WAug 30 · 23:30V. Verbyany—911711113A. Zeniuk—11911992
WAug 24 · 15:35V. Verbyany—111129113A. Zeniuk—74111142
WAug 21 · 07:55V. Verbyany—71111113A. Zeniuk—119771
WAug 20 · 12:25V. Verbyany—111114113A. Zeniuk—641691
LAug 20 · 01:34V. Verbyany—1111115122A. Zeniuk—713811143
LAug 19 · 23:00V. Verbyany—511891A. Zeniuk—11811113
WAug 4 · 08:35V. Verbyany—137118113A. Zeniuk—111151122
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
A. Zeniuk10
WSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871LSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181LSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891LSep 4 · 08:25D. Zeniuk1.501113113A. Zeniuk2.5071140WSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 4 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.06111811113A. Zeniuk8.00220661LSep 3 · 15:25V. Verbyany1.3012911113A. Zeniuk3.401011961WSep 3 · 14:25A. Zeniuk4.5011411113A. Molochko1.17611661LSep 3 · 13:25D. Zeniuk1.5071312113A. Zeniuk2.5011111011
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