TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084163
Played Sep 6Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115116––––
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Anton Molochko at 66.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 152–72 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 72 of their 224 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Molochko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
152-72 in 224
Molochko
Correct
gap of 80 in 224, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1921 vs Verbyany 1931
Verbyany
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 40% vs Verbyany 60%
Verbyany
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 40% vs Verbyany 60%
Verbyany
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +1 · Verbyany -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Molochko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.44 / Verbyany 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Molochko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084163
Molochko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it96% 64 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 126
Verbyany2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko7wins
AwayVerbyany3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko83.3%5 of 6
AwayVerbyany50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Verbyany3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Verbyany3n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyM − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.1+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime542 / 926 vs 321 / 78258.5%41.1%542 / 926 vs 321 / 782Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.44/Verbyany 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 09:53A. Molochko—127431V. Verbyany—101111113
LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko—51214792V. Verbyany—11101211113
WSep 3 · 12:55A. Molochko—11118113V. Verbyany—441181
WAug 31 · 16:35A. Molochko—61112113V. Verbyany—1161051
LAug 31 · 24:30A. Molochko—9101171V. Verbyany—11127113
WAug 25 · 07:35A. Molochko—11611113V. Verbyany—811611
WAug 24 · 16:35A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—8470
WAug 21 · 06:55A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—9880
WAug 20 · 18:55A. Molochko—711911113V. Verbyany—11511862
WAug 4 · 04:35A. Molochko—11117113V. Verbyany—781161
A. Molochko10
LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
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