TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084150
Played Sep 7Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1188118111181210
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 58.9%
98 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 154–169 Nazar Danyliuk Anton Molochko has won 154 of their 323 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Danyliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
154-169 in 323
Danyliuk
Wrong
gap of 15 in 323, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1936 vs Danyliuk 2080
Danyliuk
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 60% vs Danyliuk 80%
Danyliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Danyliuk 70%
Danyliuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +2 · Danyliuk +4
Danyliuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 2.20 / Danyliuk 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13084150
Molochko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 62 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Danyliuk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it80% 116 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko5wins
AwayDanyliuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko75%3 of 4
AwayDanyliuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko4Danyliuk6n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Danyliuk3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Danyliuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Danyliuk3n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoDanyliukM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.0+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 927 vs 588 / 96958.6%60.7%543 / 927 vs 588 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukMolochko 2.20/Danyliuk 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko—1111133N. Danyliuk—38110
WSep 3 · 15:55A. Molochko—31112113N. Danyliuk—1171031
WAug 31 · 18:05A. Molochko—81111113N. Danyliuk—117961
WAug 31 · 02:00A. Molochko—151511123N. Danyliuk—13173101
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Molochko—411951N. Danyliuk—11511113
LAug 24 · 18:05A. Molochko—12981142N. Danyliuk—1011114113
WAug 21 · 10:25A. Molochko—1111123N. Danyliuk—64100
LAug 20 · 13:55A. Molochko—61281362N. Danyliuk—11101111113
LAug 4 · 09:05A. Molochko—5511121N. Danyliuk—11117143
LAug 3 · 17:05A. Molochko—911971N. Danyliuk—11611113
A. Molochko10
LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:00N. Danyliuk1.331511910113D. Zeniuk3.25136111252WSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123LSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113WSep 4 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.06111811113A. Zeniuk8.00220661WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440
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