TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084040
Played Sep 6Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15131169111012115
Dmytro Zeniuk
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 103 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 74.7%
103 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 66–20 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 20 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-20 in 86
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 46 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2056 vs Zeniuk 2005
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 60% vs Zeniuk 40%
Danyliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 60% vs Zeniuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +1 · Zeniuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.33 / Zeniuk 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Danyliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084040
Danyliuk1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 154 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it95% 76 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it80% 116 of 146
Zeniuk3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 30 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk4wins
AwayZeniuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk75%3 of 4
AwayZeniuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S2Danyliuk7Zeniuk3n = 10Danyliuk took 7 of 10
S3Danyliuk5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Danyliuk2Zeniuk3n = 5Zeniuk took 3 of 5
S5Danyliuk0Zeniuk3n = 3Zeniuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukZeniukD − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.335.3−1.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 971 vs 370 / 72560.7%51%589 / 971 vs 370 / 725Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.33/Zeniuk 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 09:31N. Danyliuk—1111123D. Zeniuk—48100
WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk—121111113D. Zeniuk—146751
LSep 3 · 14:55N. Danyliuk—111146102D. Zeniuk—851111123
WAug 31 · 16:05N. Danyliuk—1111113D. Zeniuk—9680
WAug 31 · 24:00N. Danyliuk—11118123D. Zeniuk—5811101
LAug 25 · 09:38N. Danyliuk—7750D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 25 · 07:05N. Danyliuk—6550D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 24 · 16:05N. Danyliuk—7680D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 23 · 20:30N. Danyliuk—1112111042D. Zeniuk—1310512113
LAug 21 · 04:23N. Danyliuk—71111592D. Zeniuk—116611113
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262LSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181WSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123LSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113WSep 4 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.06111811113A. Zeniuk8.00220661WSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440
D. Zeniuk10
LSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871WSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153WSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:31D. Zeniuk8.5048100N. Danyliuk1.051111123WSep 4 · 08:25D. Zeniuk1.501113113A. Zeniuk2.5071140LSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk1.36121111113D. Zeniuk3.00146751LSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561WSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113WSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153LSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
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