TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13072531
Played Sep 4Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
51112101412711911
Vasily Verbyany
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:18 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Vasily Verbyany below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 61.3%
102 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 152–70 Vasily Verbyany Vasily Verbyany has won 70 of their 222 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Molochko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
152-70 in 222
Molochko
Wrong
gap of 82 in 222, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1937 vs Verbyany 1930
Molochko
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 40% vs Verbyany 60%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Verbyany 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +1 · Verbyany +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Verbyany form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.57 / Verbyany 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Molochko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13072531
Molochko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 153 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it85% 110 of 129
Verbyany2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 93 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back19% 28 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko8wins
AwayVerbyany2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMolochko leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko100%6 of 6
AwayVerbyany50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Verbyany3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Verbyany4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Verbyany1n = 6Molochko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyM − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.030.1+6.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoVerbyanyBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 931 vs 318 / 77758.7%40.9%546 / 931 vs 318 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.57/Verbyany 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 12:55A. Molochko—11118113V. Verbyany—441181
WAug 31 · 16:35A. Molochko—61112113V. Verbyany—1161051
LAug 31 · 24:30A. Molochko—9101171V. Verbyany—11127113
WAug 25 · 07:35A. Molochko—11611113V. Verbyany—811611
WAug 24 · 16:35A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—8470
WAug 21 · 06:55A. Molochko—1111113V. Verbyany—9880
WAug 20 · 18:55A. Molochko—711911113V. Verbyany—11511862
WAug 4 · 04:35A. Molochko—11117113V. Verbyany—781161
LAug 3 · 18:05A. Molochko—9690V. Verbyany—1111113
WJul 31 · 08:55A. Molochko—1211113V. Verbyany—10690
A. Molochko10
LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko1.67118811132D. Zeniuk2.10811117153
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440WSep 3 · 16:25V. Verbyany1.73961113113D. Zeniuk2.00111161152
Upcoming Matches
A. Molochko
V. Verbyany
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