TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089419
Played Sep 7Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11891112101012117
Andrii Zeniuk
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Andrii Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Anton Molochko at 79.8%
101 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 10–8 Andrii Zeniuk Andrii Zeniuk has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Molochko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Molochko
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1944 vs Zeniuk 1792
Molochko
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 60% vs Zeniuk 20%
Molochko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Zeniuk 30%
Molochko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko -1 · Zeniuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molochko form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.20 / Zeniuk 4.33
Signal prob.82% / 19%
Edge (Molochko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13089419
Molochko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 147 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 127
Zeniuk4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 57 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko5wins
AwayZeniuk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko83.3%5 of 6
AwayZeniuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko6Zeniuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S2Molochko8Zeniuk2n = 10Molochko took 8 of 10
S3Molochko3Zeniuk7n = 10Zeniuk took 7 of 10
S4Molochko3Zeniuk4n = 7Zeniuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoZeniukM − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.434.2+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 929 vs 279 / 51158.6%54.6%544 / 929 vs 279 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.20/Zeniuk 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.5%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko—11117113A. Zeniuk—681141
LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko—5440A. Zeniuk—1111113
LSep 3 · 14:25A. Molochko—611661A. Zeniuk—11411113
LAug 31 · 13:35A. Molochko—11116982A. Zeniuk—491111113
WAug 30 · 21:30A. Molochko—131110113A. Zeniuk—1191251
LAug 24 · 13:35A. Molochko—812561A. Zeniuk—111011113
LAug 23 · 20:00A. Molochko—861171A. Zeniuk—11115113
WAug 21 · 04:55A. Molochko—1111113A. Zeniuk—9680
WAug 20 · 16:55A. Molochko—11119113A. Zeniuk—861181
WAug 4 · 10:35A. Molochko—1112113A. Zeniuk—51080
A. Molochko10
LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262WSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560WSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113LSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko2.201111133N. Danyliuk1.6138110LSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko1.67111111113D. Zeniuk2.10137561LSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113
A. Zeniuk10
WSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871LSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181LSep 6 · 22:00A. Molochko1.2811117113A. Zeniuk3.50681141LSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891LSep 4 · 08:25D. Zeniuk1.501113113A. Zeniuk2.5071140LSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:25A. Molochko1.205440A. Zeniuk4.331111113LSep 4 · 04:25N. Danyliuk1.06111811113A. Zeniuk8.00220661LSep 3 · 15:25V. Verbyany1.3012911113A. Zeniuk3.401011961WSep 3 · 14:25A. Zeniuk4.5011411113A. Molochko1.17611661
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