TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088747
Played Sep 7Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11313111614––––
Bohdan Kohut
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 68 set 3, 16-14 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 46–53 Bohdan Kohut Vasily Verbyany has won 46 of their 99 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-53 in 99
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 7 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1952 vs Kohut 1922
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 40% vs Kohut 20%
Verbyany
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 70% vs Kohut 30%
Verbyany
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +2 · Kohut -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Kohut 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Verbyany)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088747
Verbyany1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 42 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 31 of 45
Kohut1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 115 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayKohut6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKohut leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany50%4 of 8
AwayKohutn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany8Kohut2n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S2Verbyany5Kohut5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany6Kohut4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany3Kohut3n = 6split evenly
S5Verbyany0Kohut5n = 5Kohut took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyKohutV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.3+1.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 785 vs 279 / 62941.2%44.4%323 / 785 vs 279 / 629Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.80/Kohut 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:35V. Verbyany—9950B. Kohut—1111113
WAug 24 · 13:05V. Verbyany—1211113B. Kohut—10870
WAug 23 · 21:00V. Verbyany—11711113B. Kohut—811751
LAug 21 · 05:25V. Verbyany—61111832B. Kohut—118211113
LAug 20 · 15:25V. Verbyany—11971172B. Kohut—311117113
WAug 20 · 24:30V. Verbyany—1111123B. Kohut—69100
WAug 4 · 06:35V. Verbyany—1111113B. Kohut—3850
LAug 3 · 16:35V. Verbyany—111312972B. Kohut—3111411113
LJul 31 · 07:25V. Verbyany—13791162B. Kohut—1111117113
LJul 30 · 16:25V. Verbyany—16511572B. Kohut—1411911113
V. Verbyany10
WSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580
B. Kohut10
LSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482LSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WAug 31 · 03:00B. Kohut1.301111113A. Zeniuk3.406840LAug 31 · 01:00N. Danyliuk1.33111111113B. Kohut3.25136661LAug 30 · 23:00A. Molochko1.401081111113B. Kohut2.7512117592LAug 30 · 22:00B. Kohut1.5396110D. Zeniuk2.381111133WAug 30 · 21:00V. Verbyany1.8051161172B. Kohut1.91114118113WAug 25 · 10:08A. Molochko1.44513111172B. Kohut2.631111136113LAug 25 · 09:05B. Kohut2.631511941A. Molochko1.4417711113LAug 25 · 08:05B. Kohut3.408690N. Danyliuk1.301111113
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