TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043740
Played Aug 30Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511114611118711
Bohdan Kohut
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 85 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 46–53 Bohdan Kohut Vasily Verbyany has won 46 of their 99 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:15What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-53 in 99
Kohut
Correct
gap of 7 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1891 vs Kohut 1952
Kohut
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 20% vs Kohut 40%
Kohut
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 40% vs Kohut 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany -4 · Kohut +1
Verbyany
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Kohut 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Verbyany)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043740
Verbyany1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 40 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Kohut1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 119 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back19% 33 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayKohut6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKohut leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany50%4 of 8
AwayKohutn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany8Kohut2n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S2Verbyany5Kohut5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany6Kohut4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany3Kohut3n = 6split evenly
S5Verbyany0Kohut5n = 5Kohut took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyKohutV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.3+1.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 760 vs 277 / 62240.8%44.5%310 / 760 vs 277 / 622Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.80/Kohut 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kohut won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:35V. Verbyany—9950B. Kohut—1111113
WAug 24 · 13:05V. Verbyany—1211113B. Kohut—10870
WAug 23 · 21:00V. Verbyany—11711113B. Kohut—811751
LAug 21 · 05:25V. Verbyany—61111832B. Kohut—118211113
LAug 20 · 15:25V. Verbyany—11971172B. Kohut—311117113
WAug 20 · 24:30V. Verbyany—1111123B. Kohut—69100
WAug 4 · 06:35V. Verbyany—1111113B. Kohut—3850
LAug 3 · 16:35V. Verbyany—111312972B. Kohut—3111411113
LJul 31 · 07:25V. Verbyany—13791162B. Kohut—1111117113
LJul 30 · 16:25V. Verbyany—16511572B. Kohut—1411911113
V. Verbyany10
LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431WSep 4 · 07:55A. Molochko1.5751214792V. Verbyany2.2511101211113WSep 4 · 06:55V. Verbyany1.281111113A. Zeniuk3.503580WSep 4 · 05:55N. Danyliuk1.5381191182V. Verbyany2.38114119113LSep 4 · 04:55V. Verbyany1.7311481172D. Zeniuk2.00311119113LSep 3 · 17:09N. Danyliuk1.611111113V. Verbyany2.206440
B. Kohut10
LSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WAug 31 · 03:00B. Kohut1.301111113A. Zeniuk3.406840LAug 31 · 01:00N. Danyliuk1.33111111113B. Kohut3.25136661LAug 30 · 23:00A. Molochko1.401081111113B. Kohut2.7512117592LAug 30 · 22:00B. Kohut1.5396110D. Zeniuk2.381111133WAug 25 · 10:08A. Molochko1.44513111172B. Kohut2.631111136113LAug 25 · 09:05B. Kohut2.631511941A. Molochko1.4417711113LAug 25 · 08:05B. Kohut3.408690N. Danyliuk1.301111113WAug 25 · 06:35B. Kohut1.831111113V. Verbyany1.839950LAug 25 · 05:35B. Kohut1.44121111582D. Zeniuk2.631071311113
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