TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094584
Played Sep 8Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11410121412119––
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 154–169 Nazar Danyliuk Anton Molochko has won 154 of their 323 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Danyliuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
154-169 in 323
Danyliuk
Wrong
gap of 15 in 323, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1941 vs Danyliuk 2073
Danyliuk
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 20% vs Danyliuk 100%
Danyliuk
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 40% vs Danyliuk 80%
Danyliuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko -2 · Danyliuk +5
Danyliuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.91 / Danyliuk 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094584
Molochko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Danyliuk1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 158 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it80% 119 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko5wins
AwayDanyliuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko75%3 of 4
AwayDanyliuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko4Danyliuk6n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Danyliuk3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Danyliuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Danyliuk3n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoDanyliukM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.0+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime544 / 931 vs 589 / 97258.4%60.6%544 / 931 vs 589 / 972Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukMolochko 1.91/Danyliuk 1.80
Miss
What we said
54.7%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molochko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko—1111133N. Danyliuk—38110
WSep 3 · 15:55A. Molochko—31112113N. Danyliuk—1171031
WAug 31 · 18:05A. Molochko—81111113N. Danyliuk—117961
WAug 31 · 02:00A. Molochko—151511123N. Danyliuk—13173101
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Molochko—411951N. Danyliuk—11511113
LAug 24 · 18:05A. Molochko—12981142N. Danyliuk—1011114113
WAug 21 · 10:25A. Molochko—1111123N. Danyliuk—64100
LAug 20 · 13:55A. Molochko—61281362N. Danyliuk—11101111113
LAug 4 · 09:05A. Molochko—5511121N. Danyliuk—11117143
LAug 3 · 17:05A. Molochko—911971N. Danyliuk—11611113
A. Molochko10
LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113LSep 8 · 07:35A. Molochko1.44911118172B. Kohut2.63117511193WSep 8 · 06:05A. Molochko1.17111111113A. Zeniuk4.50138281LSep 8 · 04:35A. Molochko1.537950D. Zeniuk2.381111113LSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482WSep 7 · 12:05A. Molochko1.201191210113A. Zeniuk4.33811101272LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 8 · 09:35N. Danyliuk1.3381111113B. Kohut3.25115981WSep 8 · 08:35N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.405350WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.0811119113A. Zeniuk7.00661131WSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113WSep 7 · 16:05N. Danyliuk1.081114113A. Zeniuk7.0071280LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262
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