TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094449
Played Sep 8Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911511––––
Dmytro Zeniuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeAnton Molochko to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Anton Molochko at 59.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 51–25 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 25 of their 76 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Molochko beat Zeniuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Molochko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-25 in 76
Molochko
Wrong
gap of 26 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1951 vs Zeniuk 2018
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 60% vs Zeniuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 60% vs Zeniuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko -2 · Zeniuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Molochko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 1.53 / Zeniuk 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Molochko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094449
Molochko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 147 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it84% 106 of 127
Zeniuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko2wins
AwayZeniuk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZeniuk75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko2Zeniuk8n = 10Zeniuk took 8 of 10
S2Molochko2Zeniuk8n = 10Zeniuk took 8 of 10
S3Molochko4Zeniuk6n = 10Zeniuk took 6 of 10
S4Molochko2Zeniuk4n = 6Zeniuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoZeniukM − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.438.0−7.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime547 / 934 vs 374 / 73158.6%51.2%547 / 934 vs 374 / 731Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolochkoMolochko 1.53/Zeniuk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.2%
Molochko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko—911116113D. Zeniuk—11961142
LSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko—129751D. Zeniuk—101111113
WSep 4 · 06:25A. Molochko—111111113D. Zeniuk—137561
LSep 3 · 17:39A. Molochko—118811132D. Zeniuk—811117153
LSep 3 · 11:55A. Molochko—61090D. Zeniuk—1112113
LAug 31 · 12:05A. Molochko—821131D. Zeniuk—11115113
LAug 30 · 20:00A. Molochko—8870D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 25 · 04:35A. Molochko—5130D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 24 · 12:05A. Molochko—3540D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 23 · 21:30A. Molochko—1061181D. Zeniuk—12118113
A. Molochko10
WSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113LSep 8 · 07:35A. Molochko1.44911118172B. Kohut2.63117511193WSep 8 · 06:05A. Molochko1.17111111113A. Zeniuk4.50138281LSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482WSep 7 · 12:05A. Molochko1.201191210113A. Zeniuk4.33811101272LSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262
D. Zeniuk10
LSep 8 · 11:05V. Verbyany1.7311711123D. Zeniuk2.008117101WSep 8 · 10:05A. Zeniuk2.7511761232D. Zeniuk1.408111110113LSep 8 · 08:35N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.405350WSep 8 · 06:35B. Kohut1.73117571D. Zeniuk2.0071111113WSep 7 · 19:05D. Zeniuk2.2511115113B. Kohut1.57571121WSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113LSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 14:05D. Zeniuk1.4451111113A. Zeniuk2.63117891LSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871
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