TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094594
Played Sep 8Finished
Nazar Danyliuk
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113115––––
Dmytro Zeniuk
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNazar Danyliuk above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 46 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 76.6%
46 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Danyliuk 67–21 Dmytro Zeniuk Dmytro Zeniuk has won 21 of their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-21 in 88
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 46 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Danyliuk 2071 vs Zeniuk 2038
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danyliuk 80% vs Zeniuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danyliuk 70% vs Zeniuk 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Danyliuk +3 · Zeniuk +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Danyliuk) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeniuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanyliuk 1.30 / Zeniuk 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Danyliuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094594
Danyliuk1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 158 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it80% 119 of 149
Zeniuk3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDanyliuk5wins
AwayZeniuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDanyliuk80%4 of 5
AwayZeniuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Danyliuk5Zeniuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Danyliuk6Zeniuk4n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S3Danyliuk3Zeniuk7n = 10Zeniuk took 7 of 10
S4Danyliuk2Zeniuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricDanyliukZeniukD − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.733.9−1.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanyliukZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime591 / 974 vs 376 / 73360.7%51.3%591 / 974 vs 376 / 733Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukDanyliuk 1.30/Zeniuk 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk—41140D. Zeniuk—1113113
WSep 6 · 20:00N. Danyliuk—1511910113D. Zeniuk—136111252
WSep 4 · 09:31N. Danyliuk—1111123D. Zeniuk—48100
WSep 4 · 07:25N. Danyliuk—121111113D. Zeniuk—146751
LSep 3 · 14:55N. Danyliuk—111146102D. Zeniuk—851111123
WAug 31 · 16:05N. Danyliuk—1111113D. Zeniuk—9680
WAug 31 · 24:00N. Danyliuk—11118123D. Zeniuk—5811101
LAug 25 · 09:38N. Danyliuk—7750D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 25 · 07:05N. Danyliuk—6550D. Zeniuk—1111113
LAug 24 · 16:05N. Danyliuk—7680D. Zeniuk—1111113
N. Danyliuk10
WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.0811119113A. Zeniuk7.00661131WSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113WSep 7 · 16:05N. Danyliuk1.081114113A. Zeniuk7.0071280LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WSep 7 · 01:38N. Danyliuk1.53771114113A. Molochko2.38111181262LSep 7 · 24:30A. Molochko2.20118811123N. Danyliuk1.61811118102WSep 6 · 23:00N. Danyliuk1.0781113113A. Zeniuk7.501121181
D. Zeniuk10
WSep 8 · 06:35B. Kohut1.73117571D. Zeniuk2.0071111113WSep 8 · 04:35A. Molochko1.537950D. Zeniuk2.381111113WSep 7 · 19:05D. Zeniuk2.2511115113B. Kohut1.57571121WSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113LSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 14:05D. Zeniuk1.4451111113A. Zeniuk2.63117891LSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 7 · 24:00A. Zeniuk2.5011811113D. Zeniuk1.50811871WSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153WSep 6 · 21:00A. Molochko1.57129751D. Zeniuk2.25101111113
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