TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094474
Played Sep 8Finished
Vasily Verbyany
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1188111412811116
Bohdan Kohut
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasily Verbyany to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasily Verbyany above · Bohdan Kohut below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 100 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vasily Verbyany at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Vasily Verbyany 46–53 Bohdan Kohut Vasily Verbyany has won 46 of their 99 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 14h before this match
Verbyany beat Kohut 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Verbyany
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-53 in 99
Kohut
Wrong
gap of 7 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Verbyany 1984 vs Kohut 1908
Verbyany
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Verbyany 100% vs Kohut 20%
Verbyany
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Verbyany 70% vs Kohut 30%
Verbyany
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Verbyany +5 · Kohut -1
Verbyany
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Verbyany)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kohut form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVerbyany 1.80 / Kohut 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Verbyany)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094474
Verbyany1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 45 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 34 of 48
Kohut1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 115 of 309
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVerbyany4wins
AwayKohut6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKohut leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVerbyany50%4 of 8
AwayKohutn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Verbyany8Kohut2n = 10Verbyany took 8 of 10
S2Verbyany5Kohut5n = 10split evenly
S3Verbyany6Kohut4n = 10Verbyany took 6 of 10
S4Verbyany3Kohut3n = 6split evenly
S5Verbyany0Kohut5n = 5Kohut took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVerbyanyKohutV − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.3+1.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVerbyanyKohutBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 788 vs 280 / 63241.4%44.3%326 / 788 vs 280 / 632Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VerbyanyVerbyany 1.80/Kohut 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Verbyany · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Verbyany won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 06:35V. Verbyany—9950B. Kohut—1111113
WAug 24 · 13:05V. Verbyany—1211113B. Kohut—10870
WAug 23 · 21:00V. Verbyany—11711113B. Kohut—811751
LAug 21 · 05:25V. Verbyany—61111832B. Kohut—118211113
LAug 20 · 15:25V. Verbyany—11971172B. Kohut—311117113
WAug 20 · 24:30V. Verbyany—1111123B. Kohut—69100
WAug 4 · 06:35V. Verbyany—1111113B. Kohut—3850
LAug 3 · 16:35V. Verbyany—111312972B. Kohut—3111411113
LJul 31 · 07:25V. Verbyany—13791162B. Kohut—1111117113
LJul 30 · 16:25V. Verbyany—16511572B. Kohut—1411911113
V. Verbyany10
WSep 7 · 18:35V. Verbyany1.221111113A. Zeniuk4.006670WSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140WSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 13:05V. Verbyany1.7312513113D. Zeniuk2.0010111181LSep 6 · 23:30A. Molochko1.441111113V. Verbyany2.639560LSep 6 · 22:30V. Verbyany1.617118131D. Zeniuk2.2011911153LSep 6 · 21:30N. Danyliuk1.501111113V. Verbyany2.507740WSep 6 · 20:30V. Verbyany1.22111011113A. Zeniuk4.00712891WSep 4 · 09:53V. Verbyany2.38101111113A. Molochko1.53127431
B. Kohut10
LSep 8 · 06:35B. Kohut1.73117571D. Zeniuk2.0071111113LSep 7 · 19:05D. Zeniuk2.2511115113B. Kohut1.57571121WSep 7 · 17:35B. Kohut1.2512512113A. Zeniuk3.7510111071LSep 7 · 15:35V. Verbyany1.801113163B. Kohut1.91311140LSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482LSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870WAug 31 · 03:00B. Kohut1.301111113A. Zeniuk3.406840LAug 31 · 01:00N. Danyliuk1.33111111113B. Kohut3.25136661LAug 30 · 23:00A. Molochko1.401081111113B. Kohut2.7512117592LAug 30 · 22:00B. Kohut1.5396110D. Zeniuk2.381111133
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