TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106238
Played Sep 10Finished
Anton Molochko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611115711––
Nazar Danyliuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeNazar Danyliuk to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnton Molochko above · Nazar Danyliuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Nazar Danyliuk at 59.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Anton Molochko 154–169 Nazar Danyliuk Anton Molochko has won 154 of their 323 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Danyliuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
154-169 in 323
Danyliuk
Correct
gap of 15 in 323, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molochko 1941 vs Danyliuk 2073
Danyliuk
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molochko 40% vs Danyliuk 80%
Danyliuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molochko 50% vs Danyliuk 70%
Danyliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molochko +1 · Danyliuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Danyliuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Danyliuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolochko 2.10 / Danyliuk 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Danyliuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13106238
Molochko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 63 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Danyliuk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 160 of 264
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it81% 119 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolochko5wins
AwayDanyliuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolochko75%3 of 4
AwayDanyliuk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molochko4Danyliuk6n = 10Danyliuk took 6 of 10
S2Molochko7Danyliuk3n = 10Molochko took 7 of 10
S3Molochko6Danyliuk4n = 10Molochko took 6 of 10
S4Molochko5Danyliuk3n = 8Molochko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolochkoDanyliukM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.0+1.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolochkoDanyliukBasisWin rate · lifetime541 / 926 vs 585 / 96758.4%60.5%541 / 926 vs 585 / 967Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanyliukMolochko 2.10/Danyliuk 1.67
Hit
What we said
59%
Danyliuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Danyliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:55A. Molochko—1111133N. Danyliuk—38110
WSep 3 · 15:55A. Molochko—31112113N. Danyliuk—1171031
WAug 31 · 18:05A. Molochko—81111113N. Danyliuk—117961
WAug 31 · 02:00A. Molochko—151511123N. Danyliuk—13173101
LAug 25 · 06:05A. Molochko—411951N. Danyliuk—11511113
LAug 24 · 18:05A. Molochko—12981142N. Danyliuk—1011114113
WAug 21 · 10:25A. Molochko—1111123N. Danyliuk—64100
LAug 20 · 13:55A. Molochko—61281362N. Danyliuk—11101111113
LAug 4 · 09:05A. Molochko—5511121N. Danyliuk—11117143
LAug 3 · 17:05A. Molochko—911971N. Danyliuk—11611113
A. Molochko10
WSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291LSep 8 · 09:05A. Molochko1.4411141141V. Verbyany2.6391613113LSep 8 · 07:35A. Molochko1.44911118172B. Kohut2.63117511193WSep 8 · 06:05A. Molochko1.17111111113A. Zeniuk4.50138281LSep 8 · 04:35A. Molochko1.537950D. Zeniuk2.381111113LSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 16:35A. Molochko1.575111251V. Verbyany2.25111310113WSep 7 · 15:05A. Molochko1.57911116113D. Zeniuk2.2511961142WSep 7 · 13:35A. Molochko1.446111112113B. Kohut2.6311471482WSep 7 · 12:05A. Molochko1.201191210113A. Zeniuk4.33811101272
N. Danyliuk10
LSep 8 · 10:35A. Molochko1.91111014113N. Danyliuk1.804121291WSep 8 · 09:35N. Danyliuk1.3381111113B. Kohut3.25115981WSep 8 · 08:35N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.405350WSep 8 · 07:05N. Danyliuk1.44981111113V. Verbyany2.6311117232WSep 8 · 05:05N. Danyliuk1.0811119113A. Zeniuk7.00661131WSep 7 · 18:05A. Molochko2.00129591N. Danyliuk1.73101111113LSep 7 · 17:05N. Danyliuk1.3641140D. Zeniuk3.001113113WSep 7 · 16:05N. Danyliuk1.081114113A. Zeniuk7.0071280LSep 7 · 14:35N. Danyliuk1.531720V. Verbyany2.381111113WSep 7 · 12:35N. Danyliuk1.331111113B. Kohut3.254870
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