TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121774
Played Sep 13Finished
Josef Hanacek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119711116––
Pavel Moulis
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Hanacek to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Pavel Moulis below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Josef Hanacek at 64.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Josef Hanacek 4–5 Pavel Moulis Josef Hanacek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hanacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hanacek 1391 vs Moulis 1297
Hanacek
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hanacek 60% vs Moulis 0%
Hanacek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hanacek 60% vs Moulis 30%
Hanacek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hanacek -1 · Moulis -5
Moulis
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Hanacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moulis form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 1.44 / Moulis 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Hanacek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121774
Hanacek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 59 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 39 of 48
Moulis2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHanacek4wins
AwayMoulis5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderMoulis leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanacek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMoulis66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek3Moulis6n = 9Moulis took 6 of 9
S2Hanacek5Moulis4n = 9Hanacek took 5 of 9
S3Hanacek4Moulis5n = 9Moulis took 5 of 9
S4Hanacek5Moulis3n = 8Hanacek took 5 of 8
S5Hanacek1Moulis2n = 3Moulis took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricHanacekMoulisH − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.039.2−2.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekMoulisBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 448 vs 192 / 43151.1%44.6%229 / 448 vs 192 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HanacekHanacek 1.44/Moulis 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Hanacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 3 · 16:00J. Hanacek4171112113P. Moulis331181041
LJul 24 · 19:00J. Hanacek4591161182P. Moulis49117119113
WJan 18 · 13:29J. Hanacek44115611113P. Moulis3941111672
WJan 18 · 11:00J. Hanacek4191111103P. Moulis29119451
LJan 1 · 16:00J. Hanacek2147100P. Moulis341111123
LSep 7 · 08:22J. Hanacek3212115222P. Moulis501071111113
WSep 7 · 06:45J. Hanacek3911611113P. Moulis36811891
LSep 1 · 09:30J. Hanacek357111161P. Moulis4111136113
LJun 26 · 07:30J. Hanacek356118101P. Moulis4211811123
J. Hanacek10
LSep 13 · 18:30J. Mejzlik1.801112113J. Hanacek1.9171030WSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113WSep 12 · 16:29J. Hanacek2.0091113113J. Marhol1.731181181LSep 12 · 16:00J. Hanacek2.258770F. Kubos1.571111113WSep 12 · 14:30J. Marhol1.50115971J. Hanacek2.506111183LSep 12 · 14:00O. Karpisek1.5771211893J. Hanacek2.25111091172WSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113LSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113
P. Moulis10
LSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 17:30J. Mejzlik1.5311117113P. Moulis2.38741191LSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 08:00J. Puk1.571310128133P. Moulis2.2511121011112LSep 11 · 07:00F. Husek1.57119118113P. Moulis2.2551181152LSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480WSep 9 · 12:00J. Jnr1.614860P. Moulis2.201111113LSep 9 · 11:00J. Blazek1.8391112113P. Moulis1.831171051WSep 9 · 09:30M. Melisek1.83611711112P. Moulis1.83119119133
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