TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121056
Played Sep 12Finished
Josef Hanacek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181311118––
Jan Marhol
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJosef Hanacek above · Jan Marhol below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 82 set 4, 11-8
82 points played in total.
H2H Josef Hanacek 4–6 Jan Marhol Josef Hanacek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Hanacek beat Marhol 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Marhol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marhol form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHanacek 2.00 / Marhol 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Marhol)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13121056
Hanacek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Marhol1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 38 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHanacek4wins
AwayMarhol6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarhol leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHanacek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarhol71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hanacek3Marhol7n = 10Marhol took 7 of 10
S2Hanacek5Marhol5n = 10split evenly
S3Hanacek2Marhol8n = 10Marhol took 8 of 10
S4Hanacek3Marhol4n = 7Marhol took 4 of 7
S5Hanacek3Marhol0n = 3Hanacek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHanacekMarholH − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHanacekMarholBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 445 vs 123 / 24251%50.8%227 / 445 vs 123 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholHanacek 2.00/Marhol 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek321011110J. Marhol381213133
WSep 3 · 09:15J. Hanacek531014711113J. Marhol52121211982
WAug 25 · 10:30J. Hanacek46118511113J. Marhol4191111462
WAug 16 · 16:45J. Hanacek341111123J. Marhol1945100
LAug 16 · 13:15J. Hanacek411381281J. Marhol47111114113
LJun 19 · 21:08J. Hanacek351112571J. Marhol45131011113
LJun 19 · 17:30J. Hanacek371111871J. Marhol4113711103
WJun 7 · 15:30J. Hanacek47811312133J. Marhol491161110112
LFeb 14 · 21:45J. Hanacek247890J. Marhol331111113
LFeb 14 · 20:30J. Hanacek347611101J. Marhol4011116123
J. Hanacek10
LSep 12 · 16:00J. Hanacek2.258770F. Kubos1.571111113WSep 12 · 14:30J. Marhol1.50115971J. Hanacek2.506111183LSep 12 · 14:00O. Karpisek1.5771211893J. Hanacek2.25111091172WSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113LSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113LSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.73311513113J. Hanacek2.00116111152WSep 9 · 19:00J. Hanacek2.50115911113M. Vana1.5081111672
J. Marhol10
LSep 12 · 14:30J. Marhol1.50115971J. Hanacek2.506111183LSep 12 · 13:30J. Marhol2.007111251F. Kubos1.73111310103WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870
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